Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990–2015

a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Theo Vos, Christine Allen, Megha Arora, Ryan M. Barber, Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, Alexandria Brown, Austin Carter, Daniel C. Casey, Fiona J. Charlson, Alan Z. Chen, Megan Coggeshall, Leslie Cornaby, Lalit Dandona, Daniel J. Dicker, Tina Dilegge, Holly E. Erskine, Alize J. Ferrari, Christina Fitzmaurice, Tom Fleming, Mohammad H. Forouzanfar & 610 others Nancy Fullman, Peter W. Gething, Ellen M. Goldberg, Nicholas Graetz, Juanita A. Haagsma, Catherine O. Johnson, Nicholas J. Kassebaum, Toana Kawashima, Laura Kemmer, Ibrahim A. Khalil, Yohannes Kinfu, Hmwe H. Kyu, Janni Leung, Xiaofeng Liang, Stephen S. Lim, Alan D. Lopez, Rafael Lozano, Laurie Marczak, George A. Mensah, Ali H. Mokdad, Mohsen Naghavi, Grant Nguyen, Elaine Nsoesie, Helen Olsen, David M. Pigott, Christine Pinho, Zane Rankin, Nikolas Reinig, Joshua A. Salomon, Logan Sandar, Alison Smith, Jeffrey Stanaway, Caitlyn Steiner, Stephanie Teeple, Bernadette A. Thomas, Christopher Troeger, Joseph A. Wagner, Haidong Wang, Valentine Wanga, Harvey A. Whiteford, Leo Zoeckler, Amanuel Alemu Abajobir, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Kaja M. Abbas, Foad Abd-Allah, Biju Abraham, Ibrahim Abubakar, Laith J. Abu-Raddad, Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh, Ilana N. Ackerman, Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi, Zanfina Ademi, Arsène Kouablan Adou, Kossivi Agbelenko Afanvi, Emilie Elisabet Agardh, Arnav Agarwal, Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri, Hamid Ahmadieh, Oluremi N. Ajala, Rufus Olusola Akinyemi, Nadia Akseer, Ziyad Al-Aly, Khurshid Alam, Noore K M Alam, Saleh Fahed Aldhahri, Miguel Angel Alegretti, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Lily T. Alexander, Samia Alhabib, Raghib Ali, Ala'a Alkerwi, François Alla, Peter Allebeck, Rajaa Al-Raddadi, Ubai Alsharif, Khalid A. Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Azmeraw T. Amare, Alemayehu Amberbir, Heresh Amini, Walid Ammar, Stephen Marc Amrock, Hjalte H. Andersen, Gregory M. Anderson, Benjamin O. Anderson, Carl Abelardo T Antonio, Atsede Fantahun Aregay, Johan Ärnlöv, Al Artaman, Hamid Asayesh, Reza Assadi, Suleman Atique, Euripide Frinel G Arthur Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Peter Azzopardi, Umar Bacha, Alaa Badawi, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Amitava Banerjee, Aleksandra Barac, Suzanne L. Barker-Collo, Till Bärnighausen, Lars Barregard, Lope H. Barrero, Arindam Basu, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi, Brent Bell, Michelle L. Bell, Derrick A. Bennett, Isabela M. Bensenor, Habib Benzian, Adugnaw Berhane, Eduardo Bernabé, Balem Demtsu Betsu, Addisu Shunu Beyene, Neeraj Bhala, Samir Bhatt, Sibhatu Biadgilign, Kelly Bienhoff, Boris Bikbov, Stan Biryukov, Donal Bisanzio, Espen Bjertness, Jed Blore, Rohan Borschmann, Soufiane Boufous, Michael Brainin, Alexandra Brazinova, Nicholas J K Breitborde, Jonathan Brown, Rachelle Buchbinder, Geoffrey Colin Buckle, Zahid A. Butt, Bianca Calabria, Ismael Ricardo Campos-Nonato, Julio Cesar Campuzano, Hélène Carabin, Rosario Cárdenas, David O. Carpenter, Juan Jesus Carrero, Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, Ferrán Catalá-López, Jung Chen Chang, Peggy Pei Chia Chiang, Chioma Ezinne Chibueze, Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Jee Young Jasmine Choi, Rajiv Chowdhury, Hanne Christensen, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Liliana G. Ciobanu, Massimo Cirillo, Matthew M. Coates, Samantha M. Colquhoun, Cyrus Cooper, Monica Cortinovis, John A. Crump, Solomon Abrha Damtew, Rakhi Dandona, Farah Daoud, Paul I. Dargan, José das Neves, Gail Davey, Adrian C. Davis, Diego De Leo, Louisa Degenhardt, Liana C Del Gobbo, Robert P. Dellavalle, Kebede Deribe, Amare Deribew, Sarah Derrett, Don C Des Jarlais, Samath D. Dharmaratne, Preet K. Dhillon, Cesar Diaz-Torné, Eric L. Ding, Tim R. Driscoll, Leilei Duan, Manisha Dubey, Bruce Bartholow Duncan, Hedyeh Ebrahimi, Richard G. Ellenbogen, Iqbal Elyazar, Matthias Endres, Aman Yesuf Endries, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Babak Eshrati, Kara Estep, Talha A. Farid, Carla Sofia e Sa Farinha, André Faro, Maryam S. Farvid, Farshad Farzadfar, Valery L. Feigin, David T. Felson, Seyed Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Jefferson G. Fernandes, Joao C. Fernandes, Florian Fischer, Joseph R A Fitchett, Kyle Foreman, F. Gerry R Fowkes, Jordan Fox, Richard C. Franklin, Joseph Friedman, Joseph Frostad, Thomas Fürst, Neal D. Futran, Belinda Gabbe, Parthasarathi Ganguly, Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé, Teshome Gebre, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Bradford D. Gessner, Katherine B. Gibney, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed Ginawi, Ababi Zergaw Giref, Maurice Giroud, Melkamu Dedefo Gishu, Elizabeth Glaser, William W. Godwin, Hector Gomez-Dantes, Philimon Gona, Amador Goodridge, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Carolyn C. Gotay, Atsushi Goto, Hebe N. Gouda, Rebecca Grainger, Felix Greaves, Francis Guillemin, Yuming Guo, Rahul Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Vipin Gupta, Reyna A. Gutiérrez, Demewoz Haile, Alemayehu Desalegne Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Yara A. Halasa, Randah Ribhi Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Mouhanad Hammami, Jamie Hancock, Alexis J. Handal, Graeme J. Hankey, Yuantao Hao, Hilda L. Harb, Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan, Josep Maria Haro, Rasmus Havmoeller, Roderick J. Hay, Ileana Beatriz Heredia-Pi, Pouria Heydarpour, Hans W. Hoek, Masako Horino, Nobuyuki Horita, H. Dean Hosgood, Damian G. Hoy, Aung Soe Htet, Hsiang Huang, John J. Huang, Chantal Huynh, Marissa Iannarone, Kim Moesgaard Iburg, Kaire Innos, Manami Inoue, Veena J. Iyer, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Nader Jahanmehr, Mihajlo B. Jakovljevic, Mehdi Javanbakht, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Sun Ha Jee, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Paul N. Jensen, Ying Jiang, Tariku Jibat, Aida Jimenez-Corona, Ye Jin, Jost B. Jonas, Zubair Kabir, Yogeshwar Kalkonde, Ritul Kamal, Haidong Kan, André Karch, Corine Kakizi Karema, Chante Karimkhani, Amir Kasaeian, Anil Kaul, Norito Kawakami, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Andrew Haddon Kemp, Andre Keren, Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran, Yousef Saleh Khader, Abdur Rahman Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Young Ho Khang, Sahil Khera, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer Khoja, Jagdish Khubchandani, Christian Kieling, Pauline Kim, Cho il Kim, Daniel Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Niranjan Kissoon, Luke D. Knibbs, Ann Kristin Knudsen, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Dhaval Kolte, Jacek A. Kopec, Soewarta Kosen, Georgios A. Kotsakis, Parvaiz A. Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Michael Kravchenko, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Burcu Kucuk Bicer, Andreas A. Kudom, Ernst J. Kuipers, G. Anil Kumar, Michael Kutz, Gene F. Kwan, Aparna Lal, Ratilal Lalloo, Tea Lallukka, Hilton Lam, Jennifer O. Lam, Sinead M. Langan, Anders Larsson, Pablo M. Lavados, Janet L. Leasher, James Leigh, Ricky Leung, Miriam Levi, Yichong Li, Yongmei Li, Juan Liang, Shiwei Liu, Yang Liu, Belinda K. Lloyd, Warren D. Lo, Giancarlo Logroscino, Katharine J. Looker, Paulo A. Lotufo, Raimundas Lunevicius, Ronan A. Lyons, Mark T. Mackay, Mohammed Magdy, Abd El Razek, Mahdi Mahdavi, Marek Majdan, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Wagner Marcenes, David Joel Margolis, Jose Martinez-Raga, Felix Masiye, João Massano, Stephen Theodore McGarvey, John J. McGrath, Martin McKee, Brian J. McMahon, Peter A. Meaney, Alem Mehari, Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez, Alemayehu B. Mekonnen, Yohannes Adama Melaku, Peter Memiah, Ziad A. Memish, Walter Mendoza, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Francis Apolinary Mhimbira, Ted R. Miller, Edward J. Mills, Mojde Mirarefin, Philip B. Mitchell, Charles N. Mock, Alireza Mohammadi, Shafiu Mohammed, Lorenzo Monasta, Julio Cesar Montañez Hernandez, Marcella Montico, Meghan D. Mooney, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Lidia Morawska, Ulrich O. Mueller, Erin Mullany, John Everett Mumford, Howard D. Hosgood, Jean B. Nachega, Gabriele Nagel, Aliya Naheed, Luigi Naldi, Vinay Nangia, John N. Newton, Marie Ng, Frida Namnyak Ngalesoni, Quyen Le Nguyen, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Patrick Martial Nkamedjie Pete, Joan M. Nolla, Ole F. Norheim, Rosana E. Norman, Bo Norrving, Bruno P. Nunes, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In Hwan Oh, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Pedro R. Olivares, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Alberto Ortiz, Majdi Osman, Erika Ota, Mahesh PA, Eun Kee Park, Mahboubeh Parsaeian, Valéria Maria de Azeredo Passos, Angel J Paternina Caicedo, Scott B. Patten, George C. Patton, David M. Pereira, Rogelio Perez-Padilla, Norberto Perico, Konrad Pesudovs, Max Petzold, Michael Robert Phillips, Frédéric B. Piel, Julian David Pillay, Farhad Pishgar, Dietrich Plass, James A. Platts-Mills, Suzanne Polinder, Constance D. Pond, Svetlana Popova, Richie G. Poulton, Farshad Pourmalek, Dorairaj Prabhakaran, Noela M. Prasad, Mostafa Qorbani, Rynaz H S Rabiee, Amir Radfar, Anwar Rafay, Kazem Rahimi, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Mahfuzar Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Sajjad Ur Rahman, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Sasa Rajsic, Usha Ram, Puja Rao, Amany H. Refaat, Marissa B. Reitsma, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Serge Resnikoff, Alex Reynolds, Antonio L. Ribeiro, Maria Jesus Rios Blancas, Hirbo Shore Roba, David Rojas-Rueda, Luca Ronfani, Gholamreza Roshandel, Gregory A. Roth, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Ambuj Roy, Rajesh Sagar, Ramesh Sahathevan, Juan R. Sanabria, Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño, Itamar S. Santos, João Vasco Santos, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez, Benn Sartorius, Maheswar Satpathy, Miloje Savic, Monika Sawhney, Michael P. Schaub, Maria Inês Schmidt, Ione J C Schneider, Ben Schöttker, David C. Schwebel, James G. Scott, Soraya Seedat, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Edson E. Servan-Mori, Katya A. Shackelford, Amira Shaheen, Masood Ali Shaikh, Rajesh Sharma, Upasana Sharma, Jiabin Shen, Donald S. Shepard, Kevin N. Sheth, Kenji Shibuya, Min Jeong Shin, Rahman Shiri, Ivy Shiue, Mark G. Shrime, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Abhishek Singh, Jasvinder A. Singh, Om Prakash Singh, Prashant Kumar Singh, Anna Sivonda, Vegard Skirbekk, Jens Christoffer Skogen, Amber Sligar, Karen Sliwa, Michael Soljak, Kjetil Søreide, Joan B. Soriano, Luciano A. Sposato, Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy, Vasiliki Stathopoulou, Nicholas Steel, Dan J. Stein, Timothy J. Steiner, Sabine Steinke, Lars Stovner, Konstantinos Stroumpoulis, Bruno F. Sunguya, Patrick Sur, Soumya Swaminathan, Bryan L. Sykes, Cassandra E I Szoeke, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Jukka S. Takala, Nikhil Tandon, David Tanne, Mohammad Tavakkoli, Bineyam Taye, Hugh R. Taylor, Braden J Te Ao, Bemnet Amare Tedla, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Alan J. Thomson, Andrew L. Thorne-Lyman, Amanda G. Thrift, George D. Thurston, Ruoyan Tobe-Gai, Marcello Tonelli, Roman Topor-Madry, Fotis Topouzis, Bach Xuan Tran, Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene, Miltiadis Tsilimbaris, Abera Kenay Tura, Emin Murat Tuzcu, Stefanos Tyrovolas, Kingsley N. Ukwaja, Eduardo A. Undurraga, Chigozie Jesse Uneke, Olalekan A. Uthman, Coen H. van Gool, Yuri Y. Varakin, Tommi Vasankari, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Raj Kumar Verma, Francesco S. Violante, Sergey K. Vladimirov, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Gregory R. Wagner, Stephen G. Waller, Linhong Wang, David A. Watkins, Scott Weichenthal, Elisabete Weiderpass, Robert G. Weintraub, Andrea Werdecker, Ronny Westerman, Richard A. White, Hywel C. Williams, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Charles D A Wolfe, Sungho Won, Rachel Woodbrook, Mamo Wubshet, Denis Xavier, Gelin Xu, Ajit Kumar Yadav, Lijing L. Yan, Yuichiro Yano, Mehdi Yaseri, Pengpeng Ye, Henock Gebremedhin Yebyo, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok Jun Yoon, Mustafa Z. Younis, Chuanhua Yu, Zoubida Zaidi, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Hajo Zeeb, Maigeng Zhou, Sanjay Zodpey, Liesl Joanna Zuhlke, Christopher J L Murray

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1603 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4–19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30–2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35–2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20–30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1545-1602
Number of pages58
JournalThe Lancet
Volume388
Issue number10053
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 8 2016

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Geography
Incidence
Wounds and Injuries
Neglected Diseases
Iron-Deficiency Anemias
Information Storage and Retrieval
Demography
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
Deaf-Blind Disorders
Liberia
Oceania
Somalia
HIV
Sense Organs
Ascariasis
Population
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Herpes Genitalis
Central America
Benchmarking

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990–2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. / Vos, Theo; Allen, Christine; Arora, Megha; Barber, Ryan M.; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Brown, Alexandria; Carter, Austin; Casey, Daniel C.; Charlson, Fiona J.; Chen, Alan Z.; Coggeshall, Megan; Cornaby, Leslie; Dandona, Lalit; Dicker, Daniel J.; Dilegge, Tina; Erskine, Holly E.; Ferrari, Alize J.; Fitzmaurice, Christina; Fleming, Tom; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Fullman, Nancy; Gething, Peter W.; Goldberg, Ellen M.; Graetz, Nicholas; Haagsma, Juanita A.; Johnson, Catherine O.; Kassebaum, Nicholas J.; Kawashima, Toana; Kemmer, Laura; Khalil, Ibrahim A.; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kyu, Hmwe H.; Leung, Janni; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S.; Lopez, Alan D.; Lozano, Rafael; Marczak, Laurie; Mensah, George A.; Mokdad, Ali H.; Naghavi, Mohsen; Nguyen, Grant; Nsoesie, Elaine; Olsen, Helen; Pigott, David M.; Pinho, Christine; Rankin, Zane; Reinig, Nikolas; Salomon, Joshua A.; Sandar, Logan; Smith, Alison; Stanaway, Jeffrey; Steiner, Caitlyn; Teeple, Stephanie; Thomas, Bernadette A.; Troeger, Christopher; Wagner, Joseph A.; Wang, Haidong; Wanga, Valentine; Whiteford, Harvey A.; Zoeckler, Leo; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abraham, Biju; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E; Ackerman, Ilana N.; Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi; Ademi, Zanfina; Adou, Arsène Kouablan; Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko; Agardh, Emilie Elisabet; Agarwal, Arnav; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad; Ahmadieh, Hamid; Ajala, Oluremi N.; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola; Akseer, Nadia; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore K M; Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed; Alegretti, Miguel Angel; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Alexander, Lily T.; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alla, François; Allebeck, Peter; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa; Alsharif, Ubai; Altirkawi, Khalid A.; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Amberbir, Alemayehu; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Amrock, Stephen Marc; Andersen, Hjalte H.; Anderson, Gregory M.; Anderson, Benjamin O.; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Aregay, Atsede Fantahun; Ärnlöv, Johan; Artaman, Al; Asayesh, Hamid; Assadi, Reza; Atique, Suleman; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur; Awasthi, Ashish; Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala; Azzopardi, Peter; Bacha, Umar; Badawi, Alaa; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Banerjee, Amitava; Barac, Aleksandra; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L.; Bärnighausen, Till; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H.; Basu, Arindam; Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad; Bell, Brent; Bell, Michelle L.; Bennett, Derrick A.; Bensenor, Isabela M.; Benzian, Habib; Berhane, Adugnaw; Bernabé, Eduardo; Betsu, Balem Demtsu; Beyene, Addisu Shunu; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhatt, Samir; Biadgilign, Sibhatu; Bienhoff, Kelly; Bikbov, Boris; Biryukov, Stan; Bisanzio, Donal; Bjertness, Espen; Blore, Jed; Borschmann, Rohan; Boufous, Soufiane; Brainin, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas J K; Brown, Jonathan; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Buckle, Geoffrey Colin; Butt, Zahid A.; Calabria, Bianca; Campos-Nonato, Ismael Ricardo; Campuzano, Julio Cesar; Carabin, Hélène; Cárdenas, Rosario; Carpenter, David O.; Carrero, Juan Jesus; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A.; Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Chang, Jung Chen; Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia; Chibueze, Chioma Ezinne; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe; Choi, Jee Young Jasmine; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christensen, Hanne; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas; Ciobanu, Liliana G.; Cirillo, Massimo; Coates, Matthew M.; Colquhoun, Samantha M.; Cooper, Cyrus; Cortinovis, Monica; Crump, John A.; Damtew, Solomon Abrha; Dandona, Rakhi; Daoud, Farah; Dargan, Paul I.; das Neves, José; Davey, Gail; Davis, Adrian C.; Leo, Diego De; Degenhardt, Louisa; Gobbo, Liana C Del; Dellavalle, Robert P.; Deribe, Kebede; Deribew, Amare; Derrett, Sarah; Jarlais, Don C Des; Dharmaratne, Samath D.; Dhillon, Preet K.; Diaz-Torné, Cesar; Ding, Eric L.; Driscoll, Tim R.; Duan, Leilei; Dubey, Manisha; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow; Ebrahimi, Hedyeh; Ellenbogen, Richard G.; Elyazar, Iqbal; Endres, Matthias; Endries, Aman Yesuf; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich; Eshrati, Babak; Estep, Kara; Farid, Talha A.; Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sa; Faro, André; Farvid, Maryam S.; Farzadfar, Farshad; Feigin, Valery L.; Felson, David T.; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad; Fernandes, Jefferson G.; Fernandes, Joao C.; Fischer, Florian; Fitchett, Joseph R A; Foreman, Kyle; Fowkes, F. Gerry R; Fox, Jordan; Franklin, Richard C.; Friedman, Joseph; Frostad, Joseph; Fürst, Thomas; Futran, Neal D.; Gabbe, Belinda; Ganguly, Parthasarathi; Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho; Gebre, Teshome; Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde; Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay; Geleijnse, Johanna M.; Gessner, Bradford D.; Gibney, Katherine B.; Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed; Giref, Ababi Zergaw; Giroud, Maurice; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo; Glaser, Elizabeth; Godwin, William W.; Gomez-Dantes, Hector; Gona, Philimon; Goodridge, Amador; Gopalani, Sameer Vali; Gotay, Carolyn C.; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N.; Grainger, Rebecca; Greaves, Felix; Guillemin, Francis; Guo, Yuming; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gupta, Vipin; Gutiérrez, Reyna A.; Haile, Demewoz; Hailu, Alemayehu Desalegne; Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa; Halasa, Yara A.; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hamidi, Samer; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hancock, Jamie; Handal, Alexis J.; Hankey, Graeme J.; Hao, Yuantao; Harb, Hilda L.; Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai; Haro, Josep Maria; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Roderick J.; Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz; Heydarpour, Pouria; Hoek, Hans W.; Horino, Masako; Horita, Nobuyuki; Hosgood, H. Dean; Hoy, Damian G.; Htet, Aung Soe; Huang, Hsiang; Huang, John J.; Huynh, Chantal; Iannarone, Marissa; Iburg, Kim Moesgaard; Innos, Kaire; Inoue, Manami; Iyer, Veena J.; Jacobsen, Kathryn H.; Jahanmehr, Nader; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B.; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra; Jee, Sun Ha; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jensen, Paul N.; Jiang, Ying; Jibat, Tariku; Jimenez-Corona, Aida; Jin, Ye; Jonas, Jost B.; Kabir, Zubair; Kalkonde, Yogeshwar; Kamal, Ritul; Kan, Haidong; Karch, André; Karema, Corine Kakizi; Karimkhani, Chante; Kasaeian, Amir; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga; Kemp, Andrew Haddon; Keren, Andre; Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khan, Abdur Rahman; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khang, Young Ho; Khera, Sahil; Khoja, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Pauline; Kim, Cho il; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Yun Jin; Kissoon, Niranjan; Knibbs, Luke D.; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kolte, Dhaval; Kopec, Jacek A.; Kosen, Soewarta; Kotsakis, Georgios A.; Koul, Parvaiz A.; Koyanagi, Ai; Kravchenko, Michael; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk; Kudom, Andreas A.; Kuipers, Ernst J.; Kumar, G. Anil; Kutz, Michael; Kwan, Gene F.; Lal, Aparna; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lam, Hilton; Lam, Jennifer O.; Langan, Sinead M.; Larsson, Anders; Lavados, Pablo M.; Leasher, Janet L.; Leigh, James; Leung, Ricky; Levi, Miriam; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Liang, Juan; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lloyd, Belinda K.; Lo, Warren D.; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Looker, Katharine J.; Lotufo, Paulo A.; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Lyons, Ronan A.; Mackay, Mark T.; Magdy, Mohammed; Razek, Abd El; Mahdavi, Mahdi; Majdan, Marek; Majeed, Azeem; Malekzadeh, Reza; Marcenes, Wagner; Margolis, David Joel; Martinez-Raga, Jose; Masiye, Felix; Massano, João; McGarvey, Stephen Theodore; McGrath, John J.; McKee, Martin; McMahon, Brian J.; Meaney, Peter A.; Mehari, Alem; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Mekonnen, Alemayehu B.; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Memiah, Peter; Memish, Ziad A.; Mendoza, Walter; Meretoja, Atte; Meretoja, Tuomo J.; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Miller, Ted R.; Mills, Edward J.; Mirarefin, Mojde; Mitchell, Philip B.; Mock, Charles N.; Mohammadi, Alireza; Mohammed, Shafiu; Monasta, Lorenzo; Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montañez; Montico, Marcella; Mooney, Meghan D.; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Morawska, Lidia; Mueller, Ulrich O.; Mullany, Erin; Mumford, John Everett; Hosgood, Howard D.; Nachega, Jean B.; Nagel, Gabriele; Naheed, Aliya; Naldi, Luigi; Nangia, Vinay; Newton, John N.; Ng, Marie; Ngalesoni, Frida Namnyak; Nguyen, Quyen Le; Nisar, Muhammad Imran; Pete, Patrick Martial Nkamedjie; Nolla, Joan M.; Norheim, Ole F.; Norman, Rosana E.; Norrving, Bo; Nunes, Bruno P.; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Oh, In Hwan; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Olivares, Pedro R.; Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola; Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun; Ortiz, Alberto; Osman, Majdi; Ota, Erika; PA, Mahesh; Park, Eun Kee; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; de Azeredo Passos, Valéria Maria; Caicedo, Angel J Paternina; Patten, Scott B.; Patton, George C.; Pereira, David M.; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Perico, Norberto; Pesudovs, Konrad; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael Robert; Piel, Frédéric B.; Pillay, Julian David; Pishgar, Farhad; Plass, Dietrich; Platts-Mills, James A.; Polinder, Suzanne; Pond, Constance D.; Popova, Svetlana; Poulton, Richie G.; Pourmalek, Farshad; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Prasad, Noela M.; Qorbani, Mostafa; Rabiee, Rynaz H S; Radfar, Amir; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Mahfuzar; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Rajsic, Sasa; Ram, Usha; Rao, Puja; Refaat, Amany H.; Reitsma, Marissa B.; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Resnikoff, Serge; Reynolds, Alex; Ribeiro, Antonio L.; Blancas, Maria Jesus Rios; Roba, Hirbo Shore; Rojas-Rueda, David; Ronfani, Luca; Roshandel, Gholamreza; Roth, Gregory A.; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Roy, Ambuj; Sagar, Rajesh; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Sanabria, Juan R.; Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolores; Santos, Itamar S.; Santos, João Vasco; Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo; Sartorius, Benn; Satpathy, Maheswar; Savic, Miloje; Sawhney, Monika; Schaub, Michael P.; Schmidt, Maria Inês; Schneider, Ione J C; Schöttker, Ben; Schwebel, David C.; Scott, James G.; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Servan-Mori, Edson E.; Shackelford, Katya A.; Shaheen, Amira; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Sharma, Rajesh; Sharma, Upasana; Shen, Jiabin; Shepard, Donald S.; Sheth, Kevin N.; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Min Jeong; Shiri, Rahman; Shiue, Ivy; Shrime, Mark G.; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Jasvinder A.; Singh, Om Prakash; Singh, Prashant Kumar; Sivonda, Anna; Skirbekk, Vegard; Skogen, Jens Christoffer; Sligar, Amber; Sliwa, Karen; Soljak, Michael; Søreide, Kjetil; Soriano, Joan B.; Sposato, Luciano A.; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Steel, Nicholas; Stein, Dan J.; Steiner, Timothy J.; Steinke, Sabine; Stovner, Lars; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sunguya, Bruno F.; Sur, Patrick; Swaminathan, Soumya; Sykes, Bryan L.; Szoeke, Cassandra E I; Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael; Takala, Jukka S.; Tandon, Nikhil; Tanne, David; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Taye, Bineyam; Taylor, Hugh R.; Ao, Braden J Te; Tedla, Bemnet Amare; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Thomson, Alan J.; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L.; Thrift, Amanda G.; Thurston, George D.; Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan; Tonelli, Marcello; Topor-Madry, Roman; Topouzis, Fotis; Tran, Bach Xuan; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis; Tura, Abera Kenay; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Tyrovolas, Stefanos; Ukwaja, Kingsley N.; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Uneke, Chigozie Jesse; Uthman, Olalekan A.; van Gool, Coen H.; Varakin, Yuri Y.; Vasankari, Tommi; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy; Verma, Raj Kumar; Violante, Francesco S.; Vladimirov, Sergey K.; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wagner, Gregory R.; Waller, Stephen G.; Wang, Linhong; Watkins, David A.; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G.; Werdecker, Andrea; Westerman, Ronny; White, Richard A.; Williams, Hywel C.; Wiysonge, Charles Shey; Wolfe, Charles D A; Won, Sungho; Woodbrook, Rachel; Wubshet, Mamo; Xavier, Denis; Xu, Gelin; Yadav, Ajit Kumar; Yan, Lijing L.; Yano, Yuichiro; Yaseri, Mehdi; Ye, Pengpeng; Yebyo, Henock Gebremedhin; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z.; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaidi, Zoubida; Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed; Zeeb, Hajo; Zhou, Maigeng; Zodpey, Sanjay; Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna; Murray, Christopher J L.

In: The Lancet, Vol. 388, No. 10053, 08.10.2016, p. 1545-1602.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AL, Thrift, AG, Thurston, GD, Tobe-Gai, R, Tonelli, M, Topor-Madry, R, Topouzis, F, Tran, BX, Dimbuene, ZT, Tsilimbaris, M, Tura, AK, Tuzcu, EM, Tyrovolas, S, Ukwaja, KN, Undurraga, EA, Uneke, CJ, Uthman, OA, van Gool, CH, Varakin, YY, Vasankari, T, Venketasubramanian, N, Verma, RK, Violante, FS, Vladimirov, SK, Vlassov, VV, Vollset, SE, Wagner, GR, Waller, SG, Wang, L, Watkins, DA, Weichenthal, S, Weiderpass, E, Weintraub, RG, Werdecker, A, Westerman, R, White, RA, Williams, HC, Wiysonge, CS, Wolfe, CDA, Won, S, Woodbrook, R, Wubshet, M, Xavier, D, Xu, G, Yadav, AK, Yan, LL, Yano, Y, Yaseri, M, Ye, P, Yebyo, HG, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, SJ, Younis, MZ, Yu, C, Zaidi, Z, Zaki, MES, Zeeb, H, Zhou, M, Zodpey, S, Zuhlke, LJ & Murray, CJL 2016, 'Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015', The Lancet, vol. 388, no. 10053, pp. 1545-1602. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31678-6
Vos, Theo ; Allen, Christine ; Arora, Megha ; Barber, Ryan M. ; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. ; Brown, Alexandria ; Carter, Austin ; Casey, Daniel C. ; Charlson, Fiona J. ; Chen, Alan Z. ; Coggeshall, Megan ; Cornaby, Leslie ; Dandona, Lalit ; Dicker, Daniel J. ; Dilegge, Tina ; Erskine, Holly E. ; Ferrari, Alize J. ; Fitzmaurice, Christina ; Fleming, Tom ; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H. ; Fullman, Nancy ; Gething, Peter W. ; Goldberg, Ellen M. ; Graetz, Nicholas ; Haagsma, Juanita A. ; Johnson, Catherine O. ; Kassebaum, Nicholas J. ; Kawashima, Toana ; Kemmer, Laura ; Khalil, Ibrahim A. ; Kinfu, Yohannes ; Kyu, Hmwe H. ; Leung, Janni ; Liang, Xiaofeng ; Lim, Stephen S. ; Lopez, Alan D. ; Lozano, Rafael ; Marczak, Laurie ; Mensah, George A. ; Mokdad, Ali H. ; Naghavi, Mohsen ; Nguyen, Grant ; Nsoesie, Elaine ; Olsen, Helen ; Pigott, David M. ; Pinho, Christine ; Rankin, Zane ; Reinig, Nikolas ; Salomon, Joshua A. ; Sandar, Logan ; Smith, Alison ; Stanaway, Jeffrey ; Steiner, Caitlyn ; Teeple, Stephanie ; Thomas, Bernadette A. ; Troeger, Christopher ; Wagner, Joseph A. ; Wang, Haidong ; Wanga, Valentine ; Whiteford, Harvey A. ; Zoeckler, Leo ; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu ; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen ; Abbafati, Cristiana ; Abbas, Kaja M. ; Abd-Allah, Foad ; Abraham, Biju ; Abubakar, Ibrahim ; Abu-Raddad, Laith J. ; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E ; Ackerman, Ilana N. ; Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi ; Ademi, Zanfina ; Adou, Arsène Kouablan ; Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko ; Agardh, Emilie Elisabet ; Agarwal, Arnav ; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad ; Ahmadieh, Hamid ; Ajala, Oluremi N. ; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola ; Akseer, Nadia ; Al-Aly, Ziyad ; Alam, Khurshid ; Alam, Noore K M ; Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed ; Alegretti, Miguel Angel ; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw ; Alexander, Lily T. ; Alhabib, Samia ; Ali, Raghib ; Alkerwi, Ala'a ; Alla, François ; Allebeck, Peter ; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa ; Alsharif, Ubai ; Altirkawi, Khalid A. ; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson ; Amare, Azmeraw T. ; Amberbir, Alemayehu ; Amini, Heresh ; Ammar, Walid ; Amrock, Stephen Marc ; Andersen, Hjalte H. ; Anderson, Gregory M. ; Anderson, Benjamin O. ; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T ; Aregay, Atsede Fantahun ; Ärnlöv, Johan ; Artaman, Al ; Asayesh, Hamid ; Assadi, Reza ; Atique, Suleman ; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur ; Awasthi, Ashish ; Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala ; Azzopardi, Peter ; Bacha, Umar ; Badawi, Alaa ; Balakrishnan, Kalpana ; Banerjee, Amitava ; Barac, Aleksandra ; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L. ; Bärnighausen, Till ; Barregard, Lars ; Barrero, Lope H. ; Basu, Arindam ; Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad ; Bell, Brent ; Bell, Michelle L. ; Bennett, Derrick A. ; Bensenor, Isabela M. ; Benzian, Habib ; Berhane, Adugnaw ; Bernabé, Eduardo ; Betsu, Balem Demtsu ; Beyene, Addisu Shunu ; Bhala, Neeraj ; Bhatt, Samir ; Biadgilign, Sibhatu ; Bienhoff, Kelly ; Bikbov, Boris ; Biryukov, Stan ; Bisanzio, Donal ; Bjertness, Espen ; Blore, Jed ; Borschmann, Rohan ; Boufous, Soufiane ; Brainin, Michael ; Brazinova, Alexandra ; Breitborde, Nicholas J K ; Brown, Jonathan ; Buchbinder, Rachelle ; Buckle, Geoffrey Colin ; Butt, Zahid A. ; Calabria, Bianca ; Campos-Nonato, Ismael Ricardo ; Campuzano, Julio Cesar ; Carabin, Hélène ; Cárdenas, Rosario ; Carpenter, David O. ; Carrero, Juan Jesus ; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A. ; Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo ; Catalá-López, Ferrán ; Chang, Jung Chen ; Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia ; Chibueze, Chioma Ezinne ; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe ; Choi, Jee Young Jasmine ; Chowdhury, Rajiv ; Christensen, Hanne ; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas ; Ciobanu, Liliana G. ; Cirillo, Massimo ; Coates, Matthew M. ; Colquhoun, Samantha M. ; Cooper, Cyrus ; Cortinovis, Monica ; Crump, John A. ; Damtew, Solomon Abrha ; Dandona, Rakhi ; Daoud, Farah ; Dargan, Paul I. ; das Neves, José ; Davey, Gail ; Davis, Adrian C. ; Leo, Diego De ; Degenhardt, Louisa ; Gobbo, Liana C Del ; Dellavalle, Robert P. ; Deribe, Kebede ; Deribew, Amare ; Derrett, Sarah ; Jarlais, Don C Des ; Dharmaratne, Samath D. ; Dhillon, Preet K. ; Diaz-Torné, Cesar ; Ding, Eric L. ; Driscoll, Tim R. ; Duan, Leilei ; Dubey, Manisha ; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow ; Ebrahimi, Hedyeh ; Ellenbogen, Richard G. ; Elyazar, Iqbal ; Endres, Matthias ; Endries, Aman Yesuf ; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich ; Eshrati, Babak ; Estep, Kara ; Farid, Talha A. ; Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sa ; Faro, André ; Farvid, Maryam S. ; Farzadfar, Farshad ; Feigin, Valery L. ; Felson, David T. ; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad ; Fernandes, Jefferson G. ; Fernandes, Joao C. ; Fischer, Florian ; Fitchett, Joseph R A ; Foreman, Kyle ; Fowkes, F. Gerry R ; Fox, Jordan ; Franklin, Richard C. ; Friedman, Joseph ; Frostad, Joseph ; Fürst, Thomas ; Futran, Neal D. ; Gabbe, Belinda ; Ganguly, Parthasarathi ; Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho ; Gebre, Teshome ; Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde ; Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay ; Geleijnse, Johanna M. ; Gessner, Bradford D. ; Gibney, Katherine B. ; Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed ; Giref, Ababi Zergaw ; Giroud, Maurice ; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo ; Glaser, Elizabeth ; Godwin, William W. ; Gomez-Dantes, Hector ; Gona, Philimon ; Goodridge, Amador ; Gopalani, Sameer Vali ; Gotay, Carolyn C. ; Goto, Atsushi ; Gouda, Hebe N. ; Grainger, Rebecca ; Greaves, Felix ; Guillemin, Francis ; Guo, Yuming ; Gupta, Rahul ; Gupta, Rajeev ; Gupta, Vipin ; Gutiérrez, Reyna A. ; Haile, Demewoz ; Hailu, Alemayehu Desalegne ; Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa ; Halasa, Yara A. ; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi ; Hamidi, Samer ; Hammami, Mouhanad ; Hancock, Jamie ; Handal, Alexis J. ; Hankey, Graeme J. ; Hao, Yuantao ; Harb, Hilda L. ; Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai ; Haro, Josep Maria ; Havmoeller, Rasmus ; Hay, Roderick J. ; Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz ; Heydarpour, Pouria ; Hoek, Hans W. ; Horino, Masako ; Horita, Nobuyuki ; Hosgood, H. Dean ; Hoy, Damian G. ; Htet, Aung Soe ; Huang, Hsiang ; Huang, John J. ; Huynh, Chantal ; Iannarone, Marissa ; Iburg, Kim Moesgaard ; Innos, Kaire ; Inoue, Manami ; Iyer, Veena J. ; Jacobsen, Kathryn H. ; Jahanmehr, Nader ; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B. ; Javanbakht, Mehdi ; Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra ; Jee, Sun Ha ; Jeemon, Panniyammakal ; Jensen, Paul N. ; Jiang, Ying ; Jibat, Tariku ; Jimenez-Corona, Aida ; Jin, Ye ; Jonas, Jost B. ; Kabir, Zubair ; Kalkonde, Yogeshwar ; Kamal, Ritul ; Kan, Haidong ; Karch, André ; Karema, Corine Kakizi ; Karimkhani, Chante ; Kasaeian, Amir ; Kaul, Anil ; Kawakami, Norito ; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga ; Kemp, Andrew Haddon ; Keren, Andre ; Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair ; Khader, Yousef Saleh ; Khan, Abdur Rahman ; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad ; Khang, Young Ho ; Khera, Sahil ; Khoja, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer ; Khubchandani, Jagdish ; Kieling, Christian ; Kim, Pauline ; Kim, Cho il ; Kim, Daniel ; Kim, Yun Jin ; Kissoon, Niranjan ; Knibbs, Luke D. ; Knudsen, Ann Kristin ; Kokubo, Yoshihiro ; Kolte, Dhaval ; Kopec, Jacek A. ; Kosen, Soewarta ; Kotsakis, Georgios A. ; Koul, Parvaiz A. ; Koyanagi, Ai ; Kravchenko, Michael ; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate ; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk ; Kudom, Andreas A. ; Kuipers, Ernst J. ; Kumar, G. Anil ; Kutz, Michael ; Kwan, Gene F. ; Lal, Aparna ; Lalloo, Ratilal ; Lallukka, Tea ; Lam, Hilton ; Lam, Jennifer O. ; Langan, Sinead M. ; Larsson, Anders ; Lavados, Pablo M. ; Leasher, Janet L. ; Leigh, James ; Leung, Ricky ; Levi, Miriam ; Li, Yichong ; Li, Yongmei ; Liang, Juan ; Liu, Shiwei ; Liu, Yang ; Lloyd, Belinda K. ; Lo, Warren D. ; Logroscino, Giancarlo ; Looker, Katharine J. ; Lotufo, Paulo A. ; Lunevicius, Raimundas ; Lyons, Ronan A. ; Mackay, Mark T. ; Magdy, Mohammed ; Razek, Abd El ; Mahdavi, Mahdi ; Majdan, Marek ; Majeed, Azeem ; Malekzadeh, Reza ; Marcenes, Wagner ; Margolis, David Joel ; Martinez-Raga, Jose ; Masiye, Felix ; Massano, João ; McGarvey, Stephen Theodore ; McGrath, John J. ; McKee, Martin ; McMahon, Brian J. ; Meaney, Peter A. ; Mehari, Alem ; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola ; Mekonnen, Alemayehu B. ; Melaku, Yohannes Adama ; Memiah, Peter ; Memish, Ziad A. ; Mendoza, Walter ; Meretoja, Atte ; Meretoja, Tuomo J. ; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary ; Miller, Ted R. ; Mills, Edward J. ; Mirarefin, Mojde ; Mitchell, Philip B. ; Mock, Charles N. ; Mohammadi, Alireza ; Mohammed, Shafiu ; Monasta, Lorenzo ; Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montañez ; Montico, Marcella ; Mooney, Meghan D. ; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar ; Morawska, Lidia ; Mueller, Ulrich O. ; Mullany, Erin ; Mumford, John Everett ; Hosgood, Howard D. ; Nachega, Jean B. ; Nagel, Gabriele ; Naheed, Aliya ; Naldi, Luigi ; Nangia, Vinay ; Newton, John N. ; Ng, Marie ; Ngalesoni, Frida Namnyak ; Nguyen, Quyen Le ; Nisar, Muhammad Imran ; Pete, Patrick Martial Nkamedjie ; Nolla, Joan M. ; Norheim, Ole F. ; Norman, Rosana E. ; Norrving, Bo ; Nunes, Bruno P. ; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene ; Oh, In Hwan ; Ohkubo, Takayoshi ; Olivares, Pedro R. ; Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola ; Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun ; Ortiz, Alberto ; Osman, Majdi ; Ota, Erika ; PA, Mahesh ; Park, Eun Kee ; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh ; de Azeredo Passos, Valéria Maria ; Caicedo, Angel J Paternina ; Patten, Scott B. ; Patton, George C. ; Pereira, David M. ; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio ; Perico, Norberto ; Pesudovs, Konrad ; Petzold, Max ; Phillips, Michael Robert ; Piel, Frédéric B. ; Pillay, Julian David ; Pishgar, Farhad ; Plass, Dietrich ; Platts-Mills, James A. ; Polinder, Suzanne ; Pond, Constance D. ; Popova, Svetlana ; Poulton, Richie G. ; Pourmalek, Farshad ; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj ; Prasad, Noela M. ; Qorbani, Mostafa ; Rabiee, Rynaz H S ; Radfar, Amir ; Rafay, Anwar ; Rahimi, Kazem ; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa ; Rahman, Mahfuzar ; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur ; Rahman, Sajjad Ur ; Rai, Rajesh Kumar ; Rajsic, Sasa ; Ram, Usha ; Rao, Puja ; Refaat, Amany H. ; Reitsma, Marissa B. ; Remuzzi, Giuseppe ; Resnikoff, Serge ; Reynolds, Alex ; Ribeiro, Antonio L. ; Blancas, Maria Jesus Rios ; Roba, Hirbo Shore ; Rojas-Rueda, David ; Ronfani, Luca ; Roshandel, Gholamreza ; Roth, Gregory A. ; Rothenbacher, Dietrich ; Roy, Ambuj ; Sagar, Rajesh ; Sahathevan, Ramesh ; Sanabria, Juan R. ; Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolores ; Santos, Itamar S. ; Santos, João Vasco ; Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo ; Sartorius, Benn ; Satpathy, Maheswar ; Savic, Miloje ; Sawhney, Monika ; Schaub, Michael P. ; Schmidt, Maria Inês ; Schneider, Ione J C ; Schöttker, Ben ; Schwebel, David C. ; Scott, James G. ; Seedat, Soraya ; Sepanlou, Sadaf G. ; Servan-Mori, Edson E. ; Shackelford, Katya A. ; Shaheen, Amira ; Shaikh, Masood Ali ; Sharma, Rajesh ; Sharma, Upasana ; Shen, Jiabin ; Shepard, Donald S. ; Sheth, Kevin N. ; Shibuya, Kenji ; Shin, Min Jeong ; Shiri, Rahman ; Shiue, Ivy ; Shrime, Mark G. ; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora ; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos ; Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves ; Singh, Abhishek ; Singh, Jasvinder A. ; Singh, Om Prakash ; Singh, Prashant Kumar ; Sivonda, Anna ; Skirbekk, Vegard ; Skogen, Jens Christoffer ; Sligar, Amber ; Sliwa, Karen ; Soljak, Michael ; Søreide, Kjetil ; Soriano, Joan B. ; Sposato, Luciano A. ; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. ; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki ; Steel, Nicholas ; Stein, Dan J. ; Steiner, Timothy J. ; Steinke, Sabine ; Stovner, Lars ; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos ; 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Weiderpass, Elisabete ; Weintraub, Robert G. ; Werdecker, Andrea ; Westerman, Ronny ; White, Richard A. ; Williams, Hywel C. ; Wiysonge, Charles Shey ; Wolfe, Charles D A ; Won, Sungho ; Woodbrook, Rachel ; Wubshet, Mamo ; Xavier, Denis ; Xu, Gelin ; Yadav, Ajit Kumar ; Yan, Lijing L. ; Yano, Yuichiro ; Yaseri, Mehdi ; Ye, Pengpeng ; Yebyo, Henock Gebremedhin ; Yip, Paul ; Yonemoto, Naohiro ; Yoon, Seok Jun ; Younis, Mustafa Z. ; Yu, Chuanhua ; Zaidi, Zoubida ; Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed ; Zeeb, Hajo ; Zhou, Maigeng ; Zodpey, Sanjay ; Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna ; Murray, Christopher J L. / Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990–2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. In: The Lancet. 2016 ; Vol. 388, No. 10053. pp. 1545-1602.
@article{1ad189dba3ae42f18b9a6c9ff9fad092,
title = "Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015",
abstract = "Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95{\%} uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4–19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30–2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10{\%} of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35–2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20–30{\%} of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.",
author = "Theo Vos and Christine Allen and Megha Arora and Barber, {Ryan M.} and Bhutta, {Zulfiqar A.} and Alexandria Brown and Austin Carter and Casey, {Daniel C.} and Charlson, {Fiona J.} and Chen, {Alan Z.} and Megan Coggeshall and Leslie Cornaby and Lalit Dandona and Dicker, {Daniel J.} and Tina Dilegge and Erskine, {Holly E.} and Ferrari, {Alize J.} and Christina Fitzmaurice and Tom Fleming and Forouzanfar, {Mohammad H.} and Nancy Fullman and Gething, {Peter W.} and Goldberg, {Ellen M.} and Nicholas Graetz and Haagsma, {Juanita A.} and Johnson, {Catherine O.} and Kassebaum, {Nicholas J.} and Toana Kawashima and Laura Kemmer and Khalil, {Ibrahim A.} and Yohannes Kinfu and Kyu, {Hmwe H.} and Janni Leung and Xiaofeng Liang and Lim, {Stephen S.} and Lopez, {Alan D.} and Rafael Lozano and Laurie Marczak and Mensah, {George A.} and Mokdad, {Ali H.} and Mohsen Naghavi and Grant Nguyen and Elaine Nsoesie and Helen Olsen and Pigott, {David M.} and Christine Pinho and Zane Rankin and Nikolas Reinig and Salomon, {Joshua A.} and Logan Sandar and Alison Smith and Jeffrey Stanaway and Caitlyn Steiner and Stephanie Teeple and Thomas, {Bernadette A.} and Christopher Troeger and Wagner, {Joseph A.} and Haidong Wang and Valentine Wanga and Whiteford, {Harvey A.} and Leo Zoeckler and Abajobir, {Amanuel Alemu} and Abate, {Kalkidan Hassen} and Cristiana Abbafati and Abbas, {Kaja M.} and Foad Abd-Allah and Biju Abraham and Ibrahim Abubakar and Abu-Raddad, {Laith J.} and Abu-Rmeileh, {Niveen M E} and Ackerman, {Ilana N.} and Adebiyi, {Akindele Olupelumi} and Zanfina Ademi and Adou, {Ars{\`e}ne Kouablan} and Afanvi, {Kossivi Agbelenko} and Agardh, {Emilie Elisabet} and Arnav Agarwal and Kiadaliri, {Aliasghar Ahmad} and Hamid Ahmadieh and Ajala, {Oluremi N.} and Akinyemi, {Rufus Olusola} and Nadia Akseer and Ziyad Al-Aly and Khurshid Alam and Alam, {Noore K M} and Aldhahri, {Saleh Fahed} and Alegretti, {Miguel Angel} and Alemu, {Zewdie Aderaw} and Alexander, {Lily T.} and Samia Alhabib and Raghib Ali and Ala'a Alkerwi and Fran{\cc}ois Alla and Peter Allebeck and Rajaa Al-Raddadi and Ubai Alsharif and Altirkawi, {Khalid A.} and Nelson Alvis-Guzman and Amare, {Azmeraw T.} and Alemayehu Amberbir and Heresh Amini and Walid Ammar and Amrock, {Stephen Marc} and Andersen, {Hjalte H.} and Anderson, {Gregory M.} and Anderson, {Benjamin O.} and Antonio, {Carl Abelardo T} and Aregay, {Atsede Fantahun} and Johan {\"A}rnl{\"o}v and Al Artaman and Hamid Asayesh and Reza Assadi and Suleman Atique and Avokpaho, {Euripide Frinel G Arthur} and Ashish Awasthi and Quintanilla, {Beatriz Paulina Ayala} and Peter Azzopardi and Umar Bacha and Alaa Badawi and Kalpana Balakrishnan and Amitava Banerjee and Aleksandra Barac and Barker-Collo, {Suzanne L.} and Till B{\"a}rnighausen and Lars Barregard and Barrero, {Lope H.} and Arindam Basu and Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi and Brent Bell and Bell, {Michelle L.} and Bennett, {Derrick A.} and Bensenor, {Isabela M.} and Habib Benzian and Adugnaw Berhane and Eduardo Bernab{\'e} and Betsu, {Balem Demtsu} and Beyene, {Addisu Shunu} and Neeraj Bhala and Samir Bhatt and Sibhatu Biadgilign and Kelly Bienhoff and Boris Bikbov and Stan Biryukov and Donal Bisanzio and Espen Bjertness and Jed Blore and Rohan Borschmann and Soufiane Boufous and Michael Brainin and Alexandra Brazinova and Breitborde, {Nicholas J K} and Jonathan Brown and Rachelle Buchbinder and Buckle, {Geoffrey Colin} and Butt, {Zahid A.} and Bianca Calabria and Campos-Nonato, {Ismael Ricardo} and Campuzano, {Julio Cesar} and H{\'e}l{\`e}ne Carabin and Rosario C{\'a}rdenas and Carpenter, {David O.} and Carrero, {Juan Jesus} and Casta{\~n}eda-Orjuela, {Carlos A.} and Rivas, {Jacqueline Castillo} and Ferr{\'a}n Catal{\'a}-L{\'o}pez and Chang, {Jung Chen} and Chiang, {Peggy Pei Chia} and Chibueze, {Chioma Ezinne} and Chisumpa, {Vesper Hichilombwe} and Choi, {Jee Young Jasmine} and Rajiv Chowdhury and Hanne Christensen and Christopher, {Devasahayam Jesudas} and Ciobanu, {Liliana G.} and Massimo Cirillo and Coates, {Matthew M.} and Colquhoun, {Samantha M.} and Cyrus Cooper and Monica Cortinovis and Crump, {John A.} and Damtew, {Solomon Abrha} and Rakhi Dandona and Farah Daoud and Dargan, {Paul I.} and {das Neves}, Jos{\'e} and Gail Davey and Davis, {Adrian C.} and Leo, {Diego De} and Louisa Degenhardt and Gobbo, {Liana C Del} and Dellavalle, {Robert P.} and Kebede Deribe and Amare Deribew and Sarah Derrett and Jarlais, {Don C Des} and Dharmaratne, {Samath D.} and Dhillon, {Preet K.} and Cesar Diaz-Torn{\'e} and Ding, {Eric L.} and Driscoll, {Tim R.} and Leilei Duan and Manisha Dubey and Duncan, {Bruce Bartholow} and Hedyeh Ebrahimi and Ellenbogen, {Richard G.} and Iqbal Elyazar and Matthias Endres and Endries, {Aman Yesuf} and Ermakov, {Sergey Petrovich} and Babak Eshrati and Kara Estep and Farid, {Talha A.} and Farinha, {Carla Sofia e Sa} and Andr{\'e} Faro and Farvid, {Maryam S.} and Farshad Farzadfar and Feigin, {Valery L.} and Felson, {David T.} and Fereshtehnejad, {Seyed Mohammad} and Fernandes, {Jefferson G.} and Fernandes, {Joao C.} and Florian Fischer and Fitchett, {Joseph R A} and Kyle Foreman and Fowkes, {F. Gerry R} and Jordan Fox and Franklin, {Richard C.} and Joseph Friedman and Joseph Frostad and Thomas F{\"u}rst and Futran, {Neal D.} and Belinda Gabbe and Parthasarathi Ganguly and Gankp{\'e}, {Fortun{\'e} Gb{\`e}toho} and Teshome Gebre and Gebrehiwot, {Tsegaye Tewelde} and Gebremedhin, {Amanuel Tesfay} and Geleijnse, {Johanna M.} and Gessner, {Bradford D.} and Gibney, {Katherine B.} and Ginawi, {Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed} and Giref, {Ababi Zergaw} and Maurice Giroud and Gishu, {Melkamu Dedefo} and Elizabeth Glaser and Godwin, {William W.} and Hector Gomez-Dantes and Philimon Gona and Amador Goodridge and Gopalani, {Sameer Vali} and Gotay, {Carolyn C.} and Atsushi Goto and Gouda, {Hebe N.} and Rebecca Grainger and Felix Greaves and Francis Guillemin and Yuming Guo and Rahul Gupta and Rajeev Gupta and Vipin Gupta and Guti{\'e}rrez, {Reyna A.} and Demewoz Haile and Hailu, {Alemayehu Desalegne} and Hailu, {Gessessew Bugssa} and Halasa, {Yara A.} and Hamadeh, {Randah Ribhi} and Samer Hamidi and Mouhanad Hammami and Jamie Hancock and Handal, {Alexis J.} and Hankey, {Graeme J.} and Yuantao Hao and Harb, {Hilda L.} and Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan and Haro, {Josep Maria} and Rasmus Havmoeller and Hay, {Roderick J.} and Heredia-Pi, {Ileana Beatriz} and Pouria Heydarpour and Hoek, {Hans W.} and Masako Horino and Nobuyuki Horita and Hosgood, {H. Dean} and Hoy, {Damian G.} and Htet, {Aung Soe} and Hsiang Huang and Huang, {John J.} and Chantal Huynh and Marissa Iannarone and Iburg, {Kim Moesgaard} and Kaire Innos and Manami Inoue and Iyer, {Veena J.} and Jacobsen, {Kathryn H.} and Nader Jahanmehr and Jakovljevic, {Mihajlo B.} and Mehdi Javanbakht and Jayatilleke, {Achala Upendra} and Jee, {Sun Ha} and Panniyammakal Jeemon and Jensen, {Paul N.} and Ying Jiang and Tariku Jibat and Aida Jimenez-Corona and Ye Jin and Jonas, {Jost B.} and Zubair Kabir and Yogeshwar Kalkonde and Ritul Kamal and Haidong Kan and Andr{\'e} Karch and Karema, {Corine Kakizi} and Chante Karimkhani and Amir Kasaeian and Anil Kaul and Norito Kawakami and Keiyoro, {Peter Njenga} and Kemp, {Andrew Haddon} and Andre Keren and Kesavachandran, {Chandrasekharan Nair} and Khader, {Yousef Saleh} and Khan, {Abdur Rahman} and Khan, {Ejaz Ahmad} and Khang, {Young Ho} and Sahil Khera and Khoja, {Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer} and Jagdish Khubchandani and Christian Kieling and Pauline Kim and Kim, {Cho il} and Daniel Kim and Kim, {Yun Jin} and Niranjan Kissoon and Knibbs, {Luke D.} and Knudsen, {Ann Kristin} and Yoshihiro Kokubo and Dhaval Kolte and Kopec, {Jacek A.} and Soewarta Kosen and Kotsakis, {Georgios A.} and Koul, {Parvaiz A.} and Ai Koyanagi and Michael Kravchenko and Defo, {Barthelemy Kuate} and Bicer, {Burcu Kucuk} and Kudom, {Andreas A.} and Kuipers, {Ernst J.} and Kumar, {G. Anil} and Michael Kutz and Kwan, {Gene F.} and Aparna Lal and Ratilal Lalloo and Tea Lallukka and Hilton Lam and Lam, {Jennifer O.} and Langan, {Sinead M.} and Anders Larsson and Lavados, {Pablo M.} and Leasher, {Janet L.} and James Leigh and Ricky Leung and Miriam Levi and Yichong Li and Yongmei Li and Juan Liang and Shiwei Liu and Yang Liu and Lloyd, {Belinda K.} and Lo, {Warren D.} and Giancarlo Logroscino and Looker, {Katharine J.} and Lotufo, {Paulo A.} and Raimundas Lunevicius and Lyons, {Ronan A.} and Mackay, {Mark T.} and Mohammed Magdy and Razek, {Abd El} and Mahdi Mahdavi and Marek Majdan and Azeem Majeed and Reza Malekzadeh and Wagner Marcenes and Margolis, {David Joel} and Jose Martinez-Raga and Felix Masiye and Jo{\~a}o Massano and McGarvey, {Stephen Theodore} and McGrath, {John J.} and Martin McKee and McMahon, {Brian J.} and Meaney, {Peter A.} and Alem Mehari and Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez and Mekonnen, {Alemayehu B.} and Melaku, {Yohannes Adama} and Peter Memiah and Memish, {Ziad A.} and Walter Mendoza and Atte Meretoja and Meretoja, {Tuomo J.} and Mhimbira, {Francis Apolinary} and Miller, {Ted R.} and Mills, {Edward J.} and Mojde Mirarefin and Mitchell, {Philip B.} and Mock, {Charles N.} and Alireza Mohammadi and Shafiu Mohammed and Lorenzo Monasta and Hernandez, {Julio Cesar Monta{\~n}ez} and Marcella Montico and Mooney, {Meghan D.} and Maziar Moradi-Lakeh and Lidia Morawska and Mueller, {Ulrich O.} and Erin Mullany and Mumford, {John Everett} and Hosgood, {Howard D.} and Nachega, {Jean B.} and Gabriele Nagel and Aliya Naheed and Luigi Naldi and Vinay Nangia and Newton, {John N.} and Marie Ng and Ngalesoni, {Frida Namnyak} and Nguyen, {Quyen Le} and Nisar, {Muhammad Imran} and Pete, {Patrick Martial Nkamedjie} and Nolla, {Joan M.} and Norheim, {Ole F.} and Norman, {Rosana E.} and Bo Norrving and Nunes, {Bruno P.} and Ogbo, {Felix Akpojene} and Oh, {In Hwan} and Takayoshi Ohkubo and Olivares, {Pedro R.} and Olusanya, {Bolajoko Olubukunola} and Olusanya, {Jacob Olusegun} and Alberto Ortiz and Majdi Osman and Erika Ota and Mahesh PA and Park, {Eun Kee} and Mahboubeh Parsaeian and {de Azeredo Passos}, {Val{\'e}ria Maria} and Caicedo, {Angel J Paternina} and Patten, {Scott B.} and Patton, {George C.} and Pereira, {David M.} and Rogelio Perez-Padilla and Norberto Perico and Konrad Pesudovs and Max Petzold and Phillips, {Michael Robert} and Piel, {Fr{\'e}d{\'e}ric B.} and Pillay, {Julian David} and Farhad Pishgar and Dietrich Plass and Platts-Mills, {James A.} and Suzanne Polinder and Pond, {Constance D.} and Svetlana Popova and Poulton, {Richie G.} and Farshad Pourmalek and Dorairaj Prabhakaran and Prasad, {Noela M.} and Mostafa Qorbani and Rabiee, {Rynaz H S} and Amir Radfar and Anwar Rafay and Kazem Rahimi and Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar and Mahfuzar Rahman and Rahman, {Mohammad Hifz Ur} and Rahman, {Sajjad Ur} and Rai, {Rajesh Kumar} and Sasa Rajsic and Usha Ram and Puja Rao and Refaat, {Amany H.} and Reitsma, {Marissa B.} and Giuseppe Remuzzi and Serge Resnikoff and Alex Reynolds and Ribeiro, {Antonio L.} and Blancas, {Maria Jesus Rios} and Roba, {Hirbo Shore} and David Rojas-Rueda and Luca Ronfani and Gholamreza Roshandel and Roth, {Gregory A.} and Dietrich Rothenbacher and Ambuj Roy and Rajesh Sagar and Ramesh Sahathevan and Sanabria, {Juan R.} and Sanchez-Ni{\~n}o, {Maria Dolores} and Santos, {Itamar S.} and Santos, {Jo{\~a}o Vasco} and Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez and Benn Sartorius and Maheswar Satpathy and Miloje Savic and Monika Sawhney and Schaub, {Michael P.} and Schmidt, {Maria In{\^e}s} and Schneider, {Ione J C} and Ben Sch{\"o}ttker and Schwebel, {David C.} and Scott, {James G.} and Soraya Seedat and Sepanlou, {Sadaf G.} and Servan-Mori, {Edson E.} and Shackelford, {Katya A.} and Amira Shaheen and Shaikh, {Masood Ali} and Rajesh Sharma and Upasana Sharma and Jiabin Shen and Shepard, {Donald S.} and Sheth, {Kevin N.} and Kenji Shibuya and Shin, {Min Jeong} and Rahman Shiri and Ivy Shiue and Shrime, {Mark G.} and Sigfusdottir, {Inga Dora} and Silva, {Diego Augusto Santos} and Silveira, {Dayane Gabriele Alves} and Abhishek Singh and Singh, {Jasvinder A.} and Singh, {Om Prakash} and Singh, {Prashant Kumar} and Anna Sivonda and Vegard Skirbekk and Skogen, {Jens Christoffer} and Amber Sligar and Karen Sliwa and Michael Soljak and Kjetil S{\o}reide and Soriano, {Joan B.} and Sposato, {Luciano A.} and Sreeramareddy, {Chandrashekhar T.} and Vasiliki Stathopoulou and Nicholas Steel and Stein, {Dan J.} and Steiner, {Timothy J.} and Sabine Steinke and Lars Stovner and Konstantinos Stroumpoulis and Sunguya, {Bruno F.} and Patrick Sur and Soumya Swaminathan and Sykes, {Bryan L.} and Szoeke, {Cassandra E I} and Rafael Tabar{\'e}s-Seisdedos and Takala, {Jukka S.} and Nikhil Tandon and David Tanne and Mohammad Tavakkoli and Bineyam Taye and Taylor, {Hugh R.} and Ao, {Braden J Te} and Tedla, {Bemnet Amare} and Terkawi, {Abdullah Sulieman} and Thomson, {Alan J.} and Thorne-Lyman, {Andrew L.} and Thrift, {Amanda G.} and Thurston, {George D.} and Ruoyan Tobe-Gai and Marcello Tonelli and Roman Topor-Madry and Fotis Topouzis and Tran, {Bach Xuan} and Dimbuene, {Zacharie Tsala} and Miltiadis Tsilimbaris and Tura, {Abera Kenay} and Tuzcu, {Emin Murat} and Stefanos Tyrovolas and Ukwaja, {Kingsley N.} and Undurraga, {Eduardo A.} and Uneke, {Chigozie Jesse} and Uthman, {Olalekan A.} and {van Gool}, {Coen H.} and Varakin, {Yuri Y.} and Tommi Vasankari and Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian and Verma, {Raj Kumar} and Violante, {Francesco S.} and Vladimirov, {Sergey K.} and Vlassov, {Vasiliy Victorovich} and Vollset, {Stein Emil} and Wagner, {Gregory R.} and Waller, {Stephen G.} and Linhong Wang and Watkins, {David A.} and Scott Weichenthal and Elisabete Weiderpass and Weintraub, {Robert G.} and Andrea Werdecker and Ronny Westerman and White, {Richard A.} and Williams, {Hywel C.} and Wiysonge, {Charles Shey} and Wolfe, {Charles D A} and Sungho Won and Rachel Woodbrook and Mamo Wubshet and Denis Xavier and Gelin Xu and Yadav, {Ajit Kumar} and Yan, {Lijing L.} and Yuichiro Yano and Mehdi Yaseri and Pengpeng Ye and Yebyo, {Henock Gebremedhin} and Paul Yip and Naohiro Yonemoto and Yoon, {Seok Jun} and Younis, {Mustafa Z.} and Chuanhua Yu and Zoubida Zaidi and Zaki, {Maysaa El Sayed} and Hajo Zeeb and Maigeng Zhou and Sanjay Zodpey and Zuhlke, {Liesl Joanna} and Murray, {Christopher J L}",
year = "2016",
month = "10",
day = "8",
doi = "10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31678-6",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "388",
pages = "1545--1602",
journal = "The Lancet",
issn = "0140-6736",
publisher = "Elsevier Limited",
number = "10053",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990–2015

T2 - a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

AU - Vos, Theo

AU - Allen, Christine

AU - Arora, Megha

AU - Barber, Ryan M.

AU - Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.

AU - Brown, Alexandria

AU - Carter, Austin

AU - Casey, Daniel C.

AU - Charlson, Fiona J.

AU - Chen, Alan Z.

AU - Coggeshall, Megan

AU - Cornaby, Leslie

AU - Dandona, Lalit

AU - Dicker, Daniel J.

AU - Dilegge, Tina

AU - Erskine, Holly E.

AU - Ferrari, Alize J.

AU - Fitzmaurice, Christina

AU - Fleming, Tom

AU - Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.

AU - Fullman, Nancy

AU - Gething, Peter W.

AU - Goldberg, Ellen M.

AU - Graetz, Nicholas

AU - Haagsma, Juanita A.

AU - Johnson, Catherine O.

AU - Kassebaum, Nicholas J.

AU - Kawashima, Toana

AU - Kemmer, Laura

AU - Khalil, Ibrahim A.

AU - Kinfu, Yohannes

AU - Kyu, Hmwe H.

AU - Leung, Janni

AU - Liang, Xiaofeng

AU - Lim, Stephen S.

AU - Lopez, Alan D.

AU - Lozano, Rafael

AU - Marczak, Laurie

AU - Mensah, George A.

AU - Mokdad, Ali H.

AU - Naghavi, Mohsen

AU - Nguyen, Grant

AU - Nsoesie, Elaine

AU - Olsen, Helen

AU - Pigott, David M.

AU - Pinho, Christine

AU - Rankin, Zane

AU - Reinig, Nikolas

AU - Salomon, Joshua A.

AU - Sandar, Logan

AU - Smith, Alison

AU - Stanaway, Jeffrey

AU - Steiner, Caitlyn

AU - Teeple, Stephanie

AU - Thomas, Bernadette A.

AU - Troeger, Christopher

AU - Wagner, Joseph A.

AU - Wang, Haidong

AU - Wanga, Valentine

AU - Whiteford, Harvey A.

AU - Zoeckler, Leo

AU - Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu

AU - Abate, Kalkidan Hassen

AU - Abbafati, Cristiana

AU - Abbas, Kaja M.

AU - Abd-Allah, Foad

AU - Abraham, Biju

AU - Abubakar, Ibrahim

AU - Abu-Raddad, Laith J.

AU - Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E

AU - Ackerman, Ilana N.

AU - Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi

AU - Ademi, Zanfina

AU - Adou, Arsène Kouablan

AU - Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko

AU - Agardh, Emilie Elisabet

AU - Agarwal, Arnav

AU - Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad

AU - Ahmadieh, Hamid

AU - Ajala, Oluremi N.

AU - Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola

AU - Akseer, Nadia

AU - Al-Aly, Ziyad

AU - Alam, Khurshid

AU - Alam, Noore K M

AU - Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed

AU - Alegretti, Miguel Angel

AU - Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw

AU - Alexander, Lily T.

AU - Alhabib, Samia

AU - Ali, Raghib

AU - Alkerwi, Ala'a

AU - Alla, François

AU - Allebeck, Peter

AU - Al-Raddadi, Rajaa

AU - Alsharif, Ubai

AU - Altirkawi, Khalid A.

AU - Alvis-Guzman, Nelson

AU - Amare, Azmeraw T.

AU - Amberbir, Alemayehu

AU - Amini, Heresh

AU - Ammar, Walid

AU - Amrock, Stephen Marc

AU - Andersen, Hjalte H.

AU - Anderson, Gregory M.

AU - Anderson, Benjamin O.

AU - Antonio, Carl Abelardo T

AU - Aregay, Atsede Fantahun

AU - Ärnlöv, Johan

AU - Artaman, Al

AU - Asayesh, Hamid

AU - Assadi, Reza

AU - Atique, Suleman

AU - Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur

AU - Awasthi, Ashish

AU - Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala

AU - Azzopardi, Peter

AU - Bacha, Umar

AU - Badawi, Alaa

AU - Balakrishnan, Kalpana

AU - Banerjee, Amitava

AU - Barac, Aleksandra

AU - Barker-Collo, Suzanne L.

AU - Bärnighausen, Till

AU - Barregard, Lars

AU - Barrero, Lope H.

AU - Basu, Arindam

AU - Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad

AU - Bell, Brent

AU - Bell, Michelle L.

AU - Bennett, Derrick A.

AU - Bensenor, Isabela M.

AU - Benzian, Habib

AU - Berhane, Adugnaw

AU - Bernabé, Eduardo

AU - Betsu, Balem Demtsu

AU - Beyene, Addisu Shunu

AU - Bhala, Neeraj

AU - Bhatt, Samir

AU - Biadgilign, Sibhatu

AU - Bienhoff, Kelly

AU - Bikbov, Boris

AU - Biryukov, Stan

AU - Bisanzio, Donal

AU - Bjertness, Espen

AU - Blore, Jed

AU - Borschmann, Rohan

AU - Boufous, Soufiane

AU - Brainin, Michael

AU - Brazinova, Alexandra

AU - Breitborde, Nicholas J K

AU - Brown, Jonathan

AU - Buchbinder, Rachelle

AU - Buckle, Geoffrey Colin

AU - Butt, Zahid A.

AU - Calabria, Bianca

AU - Campos-Nonato, Ismael Ricardo

AU - Campuzano, Julio Cesar

AU - Carabin, Hélène

AU - Cárdenas, Rosario

AU - Carpenter, David O.

AU - Carrero, Juan Jesus

AU - Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A.

AU - Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo

AU - Catalá-López, Ferrán

AU - Chang, Jung Chen

AU - Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia

AU - Chibueze, Chioma Ezinne

AU - Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe

AU - Choi, Jee Young Jasmine

AU - Chowdhury, Rajiv

AU - Christensen, Hanne

AU - Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas

AU - Ciobanu, Liliana G.

AU - Cirillo, Massimo

AU - Coates, Matthew M.

AU - Colquhoun, Samantha M.

AU - Cooper, Cyrus

AU - Cortinovis, Monica

AU - Crump, John A.

AU - Damtew, Solomon Abrha

AU - Dandona, Rakhi

AU - Daoud, Farah

AU - Dargan, Paul I.

AU - das Neves, José

AU - Davey, Gail

AU - Davis, Adrian C.

AU - Leo, Diego De

AU - Degenhardt, Louisa

AU - Gobbo, Liana C Del

AU - Dellavalle, Robert P.

AU - Deribe, Kebede

AU - Deribew, Amare

AU - Derrett, Sarah

AU - Jarlais, Don C Des

AU - Dharmaratne, Samath D.

AU - Dhillon, Preet K.

AU - Diaz-Torné, Cesar

AU - Ding, Eric L.

AU - Driscoll, Tim R.

AU - Duan, Leilei

AU - Dubey, Manisha

AU - Duncan, Bruce Bartholow

AU - Ebrahimi, Hedyeh

AU - Ellenbogen, Richard G.

AU - Elyazar, Iqbal

AU - Endres, Matthias

AU - Endries, Aman Yesuf

AU - Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich

AU - Eshrati, Babak

AU - Estep, Kara

AU - Farid, Talha A.

AU - Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sa

AU - Faro, André

AU - Farvid, Maryam S.

AU - Farzadfar, Farshad

AU - Feigin, Valery L.

AU - Felson, David T.

AU - Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad

AU - Fernandes, Jefferson G.

AU - Fernandes, Joao C.

AU - Fischer, Florian

AU - Fitchett, Joseph R A

AU - Foreman, Kyle

AU - Fowkes, F. Gerry R

AU - Fox, Jordan

AU - Franklin, Richard C.

AU - Friedman, Joseph

AU - Frostad, Joseph

AU - Fürst, Thomas

AU - Futran, Neal D.

AU - Gabbe, Belinda

AU - Ganguly, Parthasarathi

AU - Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho

AU - Gebre, Teshome

AU - Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde

AU - Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay

AU - Geleijnse, Johanna M.

AU - Gessner, Bradford D.

AU - Gibney, Katherine B.

AU - Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed

AU - Giref, Ababi Zergaw

AU - Giroud, Maurice

AU - Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo

AU - Glaser, Elizabeth

AU - Godwin, William W.

AU - Gomez-Dantes, Hector

AU - Gona, Philimon

AU - Goodridge, Amador

AU - Gopalani, Sameer Vali

AU - Gotay, Carolyn C.

AU - Goto, Atsushi

AU - Gouda, Hebe N.

AU - Grainger, Rebecca

AU - Greaves, Felix

AU - Guillemin, Francis

AU - Guo, Yuming

AU - Gupta, Rahul

AU - Gupta, Rajeev

AU - Gupta, Vipin

AU - Gutiérrez, Reyna A.

AU - Haile, Demewoz

AU - Hailu, Alemayehu Desalegne

AU - Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa

AU - Halasa, Yara A.

AU - Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi

AU - Hamidi, Samer

AU - Hammami, Mouhanad

AU - Hancock, Jamie

AU - Handal, Alexis J.

AU - Hankey, Graeme J.

AU - Hao, Yuantao

AU - Harb, Hilda L.

AU - Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai

AU - Haro, Josep Maria

AU - Havmoeller, Rasmus

AU - Hay, Roderick J.

AU - Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz

AU - Heydarpour, Pouria

AU - Hoek, Hans W.

AU - Horino, Masako

AU - Horita, Nobuyuki

AU - Hosgood, H. Dean

AU - Hoy, Damian G.

AU - Htet, Aung Soe

AU - Huang, Hsiang

AU - Huang, John J.

AU - Huynh, Chantal

AU - Iannarone, Marissa

AU - Iburg, Kim Moesgaard

AU - Innos, Kaire

AU - Inoue, Manami

AU - Iyer, Veena J.

AU - Jacobsen, Kathryn H.

AU - Jahanmehr, Nader

AU - Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B.

AU - Javanbakht, Mehdi

AU - Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra

AU - Jee, Sun Ha

AU - Jeemon, Panniyammakal

AU - Jensen, Paul N.

AU - Jiang, Ying

AU - Jibat, Tariku

AU - Jimenez-Corona, Aida

AU - Jin, Ye

AU - Jonas, Jost B.

AU - Kabir, Zubair

AU - Kalkonde, Yogeshwar

AU - Kamal, Ritul

AU - Kan, Haidong

AU - Karch, André

AU - Karema, Corine Kakizi

AU - Karimkhani, Chante

AU - Kasaeian, Amir

AU - Kaul, Anil

AU - Kawakami, Norito

AU - Keiyoro, Peter Njenga

AU - Kemp, Andrew Haddon

AU - Keren, Andre

AU - Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair

AU - Khader, Yousef Saleh

AU - Khan, Abdur Rahman

AU - Khan, Ejaz Ahmad

AU - Khang, Young Ho

AU - Khera, Sahil

AU - Khoja, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer

AU - Khubchandani, Jagdish

AU - Kieling, Christian

AU - Kim, Pauline

AU - Kim, Cho il

AU - Kim, Daniel

AU - Kim, Yun Jin

AU - Kissoon, Niranjan

AU - Knibbs, Luke D.

AU - Knudsen, Ann Kristin

AU - Kokubo, Yoshihiro

AU - Kolte, Dhaval

AU - Kopec, Jacek A.

AU - Kosen, Soewarta

AU - Kotsakis, Georgios A.

AU - Koul, Parvaiz A.

AU - Koyanagi, Ai

AU - Kravchenko, Michael

AU - Defo, Barthelemy Kuate

AU - Bicer, Burcu Kucuk

AU - Kudom, Andreas A.

AU - Kuipers, Ernst J.

AU - Kumar, G. Anil

AU - Kutz, Michael

AU - Kwan, Gene F.

AU - Lal, Aparna

AU - Lalloo, Ratilal

AU - Lallukka, Tea

AU - Lam, Hilton

AU - Lam, Jennifer O.

AU - Langan, Sinead M.

AU - Larsson, Anders

AU - Lavados, Pablo M.

AU - Leasher, Janet L.

AU - Leigh, James

AU - Leung, Ricky

AU - Levi, Miriam

AU - Li, Yichong

AU - Li, Yongmei

AU - Liang, Juan

AU - Liu, Shiwei

AU - Liu, Yang

AU - Lloyd, Belinda K.

AU - Lo, Warren D.

AU - Logroscino, Giancarlo

AU - Looker, Katharine J.

AU - Lotufo, Paulo A.

AU - Lunevicius, Raimundas

AU - Lyons, Ronan A.

AU - Mackay, Mark T.

AU - Magdy, Mohammed

AU - Razek, Abd El

AU - Mahdavi, Mahdi

AU - Majdan, Marek

AU - Majeed, Azeem

AU - Malekzadeh, Reza

AU - Marcenes, Wagner

AU - Margolis, David Joel

AU - Martinez-Raga, Jose

AU - Masiye, Felix

AU - Massano, João

AU - McGarvey, Stephen Theodore

AU - McGrath, John J.

AU - McKee, Martin

AU - McMahon, Brian J.

AU - Meaney, Peter A.

AU - Mehari, Alem

AU - Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola

AU - Mekonnen, Alemayehu B.

AU - Melaku, Yohannes Adama

AU - Memiah, Peter

AU - Memish, Ziad A.

AU - Mendoza, Walter

AU - Meretoja, Atte

AU - Meretoja, Tuomo J.

AU - Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary

AU - Miller, Ted R.

AU - Mills, Edward J.

AU - Mirarefin, Mojde

AU - Mitchell, Philip B.

AU - Mock, Charles N.

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AU - Murray, Christopher J L

PY - 2016/10/8

Y1 - 2016/10/8

N2 - Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4–19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30–2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35–2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20–30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

AB - Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4–19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30–2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35–2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20–30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31678-6

DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31678-6

M3 - Article

VL - 388

SP - 1545

EP - 1602

JO - The Lancet

JF - The Lancet

SN - 0140-6736

IS - 10053

ER -