Abstract
New cervical cancer screening guidelines in the USA and many European countries recommend that women are tested for human papilloma virus (HPV). To inform decisions about screening intervals, we calculate the increase in precancer or cancer risk per year of continued HPV infection. However, both time to onset of precancer or cancer and time to HPV clearance are interval censored, and onset of precancer or cancer strongly informatively censors HPV clearance. We analyse these bivariate informatively interval-censored data by developing a novel joint model for time to clearance of HPV and time to precancer or cancer by using shared random effects, where the estimated mean duration of each woman's HPV infection is a covariate in the submodel for time to precancer or cancer. The model was fitted to data on 9553 HPV positive and negative women undergoing cervical cancer screening at Kaiser Permanente Northern California: data that were pivotal to the development of US screening guidelines. We compare the implications for screening intervals of this joint model with those from population-average marginal models of precancer or cancer risk. In particular, after 2 years the marginal population-average precancer or cancer risk was 5%, suggesting a 2-year interval to control population-average risk at 5%. In contrast, the joint model reveals that almost all women exceeding 5% individual risk in 2 years also exceeded 5% in 1 year, suggesting that a 1-year interval is better to control individual risk at 5%. The example suggests that sophisticated risk models that can predict individual risk may have implications that are different from those of population-average risk models that are currently used for informing medical guideline development.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 903-923 |
| Number of pages | 21 |
| Journal | Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society |
| Volume | 178 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Oct 1 2015 |
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Keywords
- Cancer screening
- Human papilloma virus
- Joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data
- Medical guidelines
- Risk modelling
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Statistics and Probability
- Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
- Economics and Econometrics
- Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
Cite this
A joint model of persistent human papilloma virus infection and cervical cancer risk : Implications for cervical cancer screening. / Katki, Hormuzd A.; Cheung, Li C.; Fetterman, Barbara; Castle, Philip E.; Sundaram, Rajeshwari.
In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society, Vol. 178, No. 4, 01.10.2015, p. 903-923.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - A joint model of persistent human papilloma virus infection and cervical cancer risk
T2 - Implications for cervical cancer screening
AU - Katki, Hormuzd A.
AU - Cheung, Li C.
AU - Fetterman, Barbara
AU - Castle, Philip E.
AU - Sundaram, Rajeshwari
PY - 2015/10/1
Y1 - 2015/10/1
N2 - New cervical cancer screening guidelines in the USA and many European countries recommend that women are tested for human papilloma virus (HPV). To inform decisions about screening intervals, we calculate the increase in precancer or cancer risk per year of continued HPV infection. However, both time to onset of precancer or cancer and time to HPV clearance are interval censored, and onset of precancer or cancer strongly informatively censors HPV clearance. We analyse these bivariate informatively interval-censored data by developing a novel joint model for time to clearance of HPV and time to precancer or cancer by using shared random effects, where the estimated mean duration of each woman's HPV infection is a covariate in the submodel for time to precancer or cancer. The model was fitted to data on 9553 HPV positive and negative women undergoing cervical cancer screening at Kaiser Permanente Northern California: data that were pivotal to the development of US screening guidelines. We compare the implications for screening intervals of this joint model with those from population-average marginal models of precancer or cancer risk. In particular, after 2 years the marginal population-average precancer or cancer risk was 5%, suggesting a 2-year interval to control population-average risk at 5%. In contrast, the joint model reveals that almost all women exceeding 5% individual risk in 2 years also exceeded 5% in 1 year, suggesting that a 1-year interval is better to control individual risk at 5%. The example suggests that sophisticated risk models that can predict individual risk may have implications that are different from those of population-average risk models that are currently used for informing medical guideline development.
AB - New cervical cancer screening guidelines in the USA and many European countries recommend that women are tested for human papilloma virus (HPV). To inform decisions about screening intervals, we calculate the increase in precancer or cancer risk per year of continued HPV infection. However, both time to onset of precancer or cancer and time to HPV clearance are interval censored, and onset of precancer or cancer strongly informatively censors HPV clearance. We analyse these bivariate informatively interval-censored data by developing a novel joint model for time to clearance of HPV and time to precancer or cancer by using shared random effects, where the estimated mean duration of each woman's HPV infection is a covariate in the submodel for time to precancer or cancer. The model was fitted to data on 9553 HPV positive and negative women undergoing cervical cancer screening at Kaiser Permanente Northern California: data that were pivotal to the development of US screening guidelines. We compare the implications for screening intervals of this joint model with those from population-average marginal models of precancer or cancer risk. In particular, after 2 years the marginal population-average precancer or cancer risk was 5%, suggesting a 2-year interval to control population-average risk at 5%. In contrast, the joint model reveals that almost all women exceeding 5% individual risk in 2 years also exceeded 5% in 1 year, suggesting that a 1-year interval is better to control individual risk at 5%. The example suggests that sophisticated risk models that can predict individual risk may have implications that are different from those of population-average risk models that are currently used for informing medical guideline development.
KW - Cancer screening
KW - Human papilloma virus
KW - Joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data
KW - Medical guidelines
KW - Risk modelling
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84942337366&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84942337366&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1111/rssa.12101
DO - 10.1111/rssa.12101
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84942337366
VL - 178
SP - 903
EP - 923
JO - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society
JF - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society
SN - 0964-1998
IS - 4
ER -