Validation of the Risk Model

High-Risk Classification and Tumor Pattern of Invasion Predict Outcome for Patients with Low-Stage Oral Cavity Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Yufeng Li, Shuting Bai, William Carroll, Dan Dayan, Joseph C. Dort, Keith Heller, George Jour, Harold Lau, Carla Penner, Michael B. Prystowsky, Eben Rosenthal, Nicolas F. Schlecht, Richard V. Smith, Mark Urken, Marilena Vered, Beverly Wang, Bruce Wenig, Abdissa Negassa, Margaret Brandwein-Gensler

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

The Risk Model is a validated outcome predictor for patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (Brandwein-Gensler et al. in Am J Surg Pathol 20:167-178, 2005; Am J Surg Pathol 34:676-688, 2010). This model may potentially shift treatment paradigms for patients with low-stage cancers, as current protocols dictate that they might receive only primary surgery. Here we test the hypothesis that the Risk Model has added prognostic value for low-stage oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) patients. 299 patients with Stage I/II OCSCC were characterized according to the Risk Model (Brandwein-Gensler et al. in Am J Surg Pathol 20:167-178, 2005; Am J Surg Pathol 34:676-688, 2010). Cumulative incidence and competing risk analysis were performed for locoregional recurrence (LRR) and disease-specific survival (DSS). Receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed for worst pattern of invasion (WPOI) and the risk categories. 292 patients were analyzed; 30 T1N0 patients (17 %) and 26 T2N0 patients (23 %) developed LRR. Disease-specific mortality occurred in 9 T1N0 patients (6 %) and 9 T2N0 patients (10 %). On multivariable analysis, the Risk Model was significantly predictive of LRR (p = 0.0012, HR 2.41, 95 % CI 1.42, 4.11) and DSS (p = 0.0005, HR 9.16, 95 % CI 2.65, 31.66) adjusted for potential confounders. WPOI alone was also significantly predictive for LRR adjusted for potential confounders with a cut-point of either WPOI-4 (p = 0.0029, HR 3.63, 95 % CI 1.56, 8.47) or WPOI-5 (p = 0.0008, HR 2.55, 95 % CI 1.48, 4.41) and for DSS (cut point WPOI-5, p = 0.0001, HR 6.34, 95 % CI 2.50, 16.09). Given a WPOI-5, the probability of developing locoregional recurrence is 42 %. Given a high-risk classification for a combination of features other than WPOI-5, the probability of developing locoregional recurrence is 32 %. The Risk Model is the first validated model that is significantly predictive for the important niche group of low-stage OCSCC patients.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)211-223
Number of pages13
JournalHead and Neck Pathology
Volume7
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 2013

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Mouth
Squamous Cell Carcinoma
Neoplasms
Recurrence
Survival
ROC Curve
Mortality
Incidence

Keywords

  • Low-stage
  • Oral cavity
  • Pattern of invasion
  • Risk Model
  • Squamous cell carcinoma

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Pathology and Forensic Medicine
  • Oncology
  • Otorhinolaryngology

Cite this

Validation of the Risk Model : High-Risk Classification and Tumor Pattern of Invasion Predict Outcome for Patients with Low-Stage Oral Cavity Squamous Cell Carcinoma. / Li, Yufeng; Bai, Shuting; Carroll, William; Dayan, Dan; Dort, Joseph C.; Heller, Keith; Jour, George; Lau, Harold; Penner, Carla; Prystowsky, Michael B.; Rosenthal, Eben; Schlecht, Nicolas F.; Smith, Richard V.; Urken, Mark; Vered, Marilena; Wang, Beverly; Wenig, Bruce; Negassa, Abdissa; Brandwein-Gensler, Margaret.

In: Head and Neck Pathology, Vol. 7, No. 3, 09.2013, p. 211-223.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Li, Y, Bai, S, Carroll, W, Dayan, D, Dort, JC, Heller, K, Jour, G, Lau, H, Penner, C, Prystowsky, MB, Rosenthal, E, Schlecht, NF, Smith, RV, Urken, M, Vered, M, Wang, B, Wenig, B, Negassa, A & Brandwein-Gensler, M 2013, 'Validation of the Risk Model: High-Risk Classification and Tumor Pattern of Invasion Predict Outcome for Patients with Low-Stage Oral Cavity Squamous Cell Carcinoma', Head and Neck Pathology, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 211-223. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12105-012-0412-1
Li, Yufeng ; Bai, Shuting ; Carroll, William ; Dayan, Dan ; Dort, Joseph C. ; Heller, Keith ; Jour, George ; Lau, Harold ; Penner, Carla ; Prystowsky, Michael B. ; Rosenthal, Eben ; Schlecht, Nicolas F. ; Smith, Richard V. ; Urken, Mark ; Vered, Marilena ; Wang, Beverly ; Wenig, Bruce ; Negassa, Abdissa ; Brandwein-Gensler, Margaret. / Validation of the Risk Model : High-Risk Classification and Tumor Pattern of Invasion Predict Outcome for Patients with Low-Stage Oral Cavity Squamous Cell Carcinoma. In: Head and Neck Pathology. 2013 ; Vol. 7, No. 3. pp. 211-223.
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abstract = "The Risk Model is a validated outcome predictor for patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (Brandwein-Gensler et al. in Am J Surg Pathol 20:167-178, 2005; Am J Surg Pathol 34:676-688, 2010). This model may potentially shift treatment paradigms for patients with low-stage cancers, as current protocols dictate that they might receive only primary surgery. Here we test the hypothesis that the Risk Model has added prognostic value for low-stage oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) patients. 299 patients with Stage I/II OCSCC were characterized according to the Risk Model (Brandwein-Gensler et al. in Am J Surg Pathol 20:167-178, 2005; Am J Surg Pathol 34:676-688, 2010). Cumulative incidence and competing risk analysis were performed for locoregional recurrence (LRR) and disease-specific survival (DSS). Receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed for worst pattern of invasion (WPOI) and the risk categories. 292 patients were analyzed; 30 T1N0 patients (17 {\%}) and 26 T2N0 patients (23 {\%}) developed LRR. Disease-specific mortality occurred in 9 T1N0 patients (6 {\%}) and 9 T2N0 patients (10 {\%}). On multivariable analysis, the Risk Model was significantly predictive of LRR (p = 0.0012, HR 2.41, 95 {\%} CI 1.42, 4.11) and DSS (p = 0.0005, HR 9.16, 95 {\%} CI 2.65, 31.66) adjusted for potential confounders. WPOI alone was also significantly predictive for LRR adjusted for potential confounders with a cut-point of either WPOI-4 (p = 0.0029, HR 3.63, 95 {\%} CI 1.56, 8.47) or WPOI-5 (p = 0.0008, HR 2.55, 95 {\%} CI 1.48, 4.41) and for DSS (cut point WPOI-5, p = 0.0001, HR 6.34, 95 {\%} CI 2.50, 16.09). Given a WPOI-5, the probability of developing locoregional recurrence is 42 {\%}. Given a high-risk classification for a combination of features other than WPOI-5, the probability of developing locoregional recurrence is 32 {\%}. The Risk Model is the first validated model that is significantly predictive for the important niche group of low-stage OCSCC patients.",
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AU - Bai, Shuting

AU - Carroll, William

AU - Dayan, Dan

AU - Dort, Joseph C.

AU - Heller, Keith

AU - Jour, George

AU - Lau, Harold

AU - Penner, Carla

AU - Prystowsky, Michael B.

AU - Rosenthal, Eben

AU - Schlecht, Nicolas F.

AU - Smith, Richard V.

AU - Urken, Mark

AU - Vered, Marilena

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AU - Negassa, Abdissa

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N2 - The Risk Model is a validated outcome predictor for patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (Brandwein-Gensler et al. in Am J Surg Pathol 20:167-178, 2005; Am J Surg Pathol 34:676-688, 2010). This model may potentially shift treatment paradigms for patients with low-stage cancers, as current protocols dictate that they might receive only primary surgery. Here we test the hypothesis that the Risk Model has added prognostic value for low-stage oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) patients. 299 patients with Stage I/II OCSCC were characterized according to the Risk Model (Brandwein-Gensler et al. in Am J Surg Pathol 20:167-178, 2005; Am J Surg Pathol 34:676-688, 2010). Cumulative incidence and competing risk analysis were performed for locoregional recurrence (LRR) and disease-specific survival (DSS). Receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed for worst pattern of invasion (WPOI) and the risk categories. 292 patients were analyzed; 30 T1N0 patients (17 %) and 26 T2N0 patients (23 %) developed LRR. Disease-specific mortality occurred in 9 T1N0 patients (6 %) and 9 T2N0 patients (10 %). On multivariable analysis, the Risk Model was significantly predictive of LRR (p = 0.0012, HR 2.41, 95 % CI 1.42, 4.11) and DSS (p = 0.0005, HR 9.16, 95 % CI 2.65, 31.66) adjusted for potential confounders. WPOI alone was also significantly predictive for LRR adjusted for potential confounders with a cut-point of either WPOI-4 (p = 0.0029, HR 3.63, 95 % CI 1.56, 8.47) or WPOI-5 (p = 0.0008, HR 2.55, 95 % CI 1.48, 4.41) and for DSS (cut point WPOI-5, p = 0.0001, HR 6.34, 95 % CI 2.50, 16.09). Given a WPOI-5, the probability of developing locoregional recurrence is 42 %. Given a high-risk classification for a combination of features other than WPOI-5, the probability of developing locoregional recurrence is 32 %. The Risk Model is the first validated model that is significantly predictive for the important niche group of low-stage OCSCC patients.

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