Risk prediction of major complications in individuals with diabetes: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

C. M. Parrinello, K. Matsushita, M. Woodward, L. E. Wagenknecht, J. Coresh, E. Selvin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Aims: To develop a prediction equation for 10-year risk of a combined endpoint (incident coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, lower extremity hospitalizations) in people with diabetes, using demographic and clinical information, and a panel of traditional and non-traditional biomarkers. Methods: We included in the study 654 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, a prospective cohort study, with diagnosed diabetes (visit 2; 1990-1992). Models included self-reported variables (Model 1), clinical measurements (Model 2), and glycated haemoglobin (Model 3). Model 4 tested the addition of 12 blood-based biomarkers. We compared models using prediction and discrimination statistics. Results: Successive stages of model development improved risk prediction. The C-statistics (95% confidence intervals) of models 1, 2, and 3 were 0.667 (0.64, 0.70), 0.683 (0.65, 0.71), and 0.694 (0.66, 0.72), respectively (p

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalDiabetes, Obesity and Metabolism
DOIs
StateAccepted/In press - 2016

Fingerprint

Atherosclerosis
Biomarkers
Glycosylated Hemoglobin A
Chronic Renal Insufficiency
Coronary Disease
Lower Extremity
Hospitalization
Cohort Studies
Heart Failure
Stroke
Demography
Prospective Studies
Confidence Intervals

Keywords

  • Cardiovascular disease
  • Diabetes complications
  • Population study
  • Type 2 diabetes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Internal Medicine
  • Endocrinology
  • Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism

Cite this

Risk prediction of major complications in individuals with diabetes : The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. / Parrinello, C. M.; Matsushita, K.; Woodward, M.; Wagenknecht, L. E.; Coresh, J.; Selvin, E.

In: Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism, 2016.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Parrinello, C. M. ; Matsushita, K. ; Woodward, M. ; Wagenknecht, L. E. ; Coresh, J. ; Selvin, E. / Risk prediction of major complications in individuals with diabetes : The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. In: Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism. 2016.
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