Modeling outbreak data: Analysis of a 2012 ebola virus disease epidemic in drc

Boseung Choi, Sydney Busch, Dieudonne Kazadi, Benoit Kebela, Emile Okitolonda, Yi Dai, Robert M. Lumpkin, Wasiur Rahman Khuda Bukhsh, Omar Saucedo, Marcel Yotebieng, Joseph Tien, Eben B. Kenah, Grzegorz A. Rempala

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

We describe two approaches to modeling data from a small to moderate-sized epidemic outbreak. The first approach is based on a branching process approximation and direct analysis of the transmission network, whereas the second one is based on a survival model derived from the classical SIR equations with no explicit transmission information. We compare these approaches using data from a 2012 outbreak of Ebola virus disease caused by Bundibugyo ebolavirus in city of Isiro, Democratic Republic of the Congo. The branching process model allows for a direct comparison of disease transmission across different environments, such as the general community or the Ebola treatment unit. However, the survival model appears to yield parameter estimates with more accuracy and better precision in some circumstances.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number1910037
JournalBiomath
Volume8
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2019

Fingerprint

Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever
Ebolavirus
Viruses
Virus
Disease Outbreaks
data analysis
Data analysis
Survival Model
Branching process
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Bundibugyo ebolavirus
Modeling
branching
Data Modeling
Electric power transmission networks
Process Model
Data structures
disease transmission
Unit
Approximation

Keywords

  • Branching process
  • Markov Chain Monte-Carlo methods
  • Parameter estimation
  • Survival dynamical system

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology (miscellaneous)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Applied Mathematics

Cite this

Choi, B., Busch, S., Kazadi, D., Kebela, B., Okitolonda, E., Dai, Y., ... Rempala, G. A. (2019). Modeling outbreak data: Analysis of a 2012 ebola virus disease epidemic in drc. Biomath, 8(2), [1910037]. https://doi.org/10.11145/j.biomath.2019.10.037

Modeling outbreak data : Analysis of a 2012 ebola virus disease epidemic in drc. / Choi, Boseung; Busch, Sydney; Kazadi, Dieudonne; Kebela, Benoit; Okitolonda, Emile; Dai, Yi; Lumpkin, Robert M.; Bukhsh, Wasiur Rahman Khuda; Saucedo, Omar; Yotebieng, Marcel; Tien, Joseph; Kenah, Eben B.; Rempala, Grzegorz A.

In: Biomath, Vol. 8, No. 2, 1910037, 01.01.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Choi, B, Busch, S, Kazadi, D, Kebela, B, Okitolonda, E, Dai, Y, Lumpkin, RM, Bukhsh, WRK, Saucedo, O, Yotebieng, M, Tien, J, Kenah, EB & Rempala, GA 2019, 'Modeling outbreak data: Analysis of a 2012 ebola virus disease epidemic in drc', Biomath, vol. 8, no. 2, 1910037. https://doi.org/10.11145/j.biomath.2019.10.037
Choi B, Busch S, Kazadi D, Kebela B, Okitolonda E, Dai Y et al. Modeling outbreak data: Analysis of a 2012 ebola virus disease epidemic in drc. Biomath. 2019 Jan 1;8(2). 1910037. https://doi.org/10.11145/j.biomath.2019.10.037
Choi, Boseung ; Busch, Sydney ; Kazadi, Dieudonne ; Kebela, Benoit ; Okitolonda, Emile ; Dai, Yi ; Lumpkin, Robert M. ; Bukhsh, Wasiur Rahman Khuda ; Saucedo, Omar ; Yotebieng, Marcel ; Tien, Joseph ; Kenah, Eben B. ; Rempala, Grzegorz A. / Modeling outbreak data : Analysis of a 2012 ebola virus disease epidemic in drc. In: Biomath. 2019 ; Vol. 8, No. 2.
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