TY - JOUR
T1 - Meteorological parameters and cases of COVID-19 in Brazilian cities
T2 - an observational study
AU - Olak, André S.
AU - Santos, Willian S.
AU - Susuki, Aline M.
AU - Pott-Junior, Henrique
AU - V. Skalny, Anatoly
AU - Tinkov, Alexey A.
AU - Aschner, Michael
AU - Pinese, José P.P.
AU - Urbano, Mariana R.
AU - Paoliello, Monica M.B.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Taylor & Francis.
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - Meteorological parameters modulate transmission of the SARS-Cov-2 virus, the causative agent related to coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) development. However, findings across the globe have been inconsistent attributed to several confounding factors. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between reported meteorological parameters from July 1 to October 31, 2020, and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in 4 Brazilian cities: São Paulo, the largest city with the highest number of cases in Brazil, and the cities with greater number of cases in the state of Parana during the study period (Curitiba, Londrina and Maringa). The assessment of meteorological factors with confirmed COVID-19 cases included atmospheric pressure, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar irradiation, sunlight, dew point temperature, and total precipitation. The 7- and 15-day moving averages of confirmed COVID-19 cases were obtained for each city. Pearson’s correlation coefficients showed significant correlations between COVID-19 cases and all meteorological parameters, except for total precipitation, with the strongest correlation with maximum wind speed (0.717, <0.001) in São Paulo. Regression tree analysis demonstrated that the largest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases was associated with wind speed (between ≥0.3381 and <1.173 m/s), atmospheric pressure (<930.5mb), and solar radiation (<17.98e+3). Lower number of cases was observed for wind speed <0.3381 m/s and temperature <23.86°C. Our results encourage the use of meteorological information as a critical component in future risk assessment models.
AB - Meteorological parameters modulate transmission of the SARS-Cov-2 virus, the causative agent related to coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) development. However, findings across the globe have been inconsistent attributed to several confounding factors. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between reported meteorological parameters from July 1 to October 31, 2020, and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in 4 Brazilian cities: São Paulo, the largest city with the highest number of cases in Brazil, and the cities with greater number of cases in the state of Parana during the study period (Curitiba, Londrina and Maringa). The assessment of meteorological factors with confirmed COVID-19 cases included atmospheric pressure, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar irradiation, sunlight, dew point temperature, and total precipitation. The 7- and 15-day moving averages of confirmed COVID-19 cases were obtained for each city. Pearson’s correlation coefficients showed significant correlations between COVID-19 cases and all meteorological parameters, except for total precipitation, with the strongest correlation with maximum wind speed (0.717, <0.001) in São Paulo. Regression tree analysis demonstrated that the largest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases was associated with wind speed (between ≥0.3381 and <1.173 m/s), atmospheric pressure (<930.5mb), and solar radiation (<17.98e+3). Lower number of cases was observed for wind speed <0.3381 m/s and temperature <23.86°C. Our results encourage the use of meteorological information as a critical component in future risk assessment models.
KW - COVID-19
KW - cases
KW - meteorological factors
KW - regression tree
KW - transmissibility
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U2 - 10.1080/15287394.2021.1969304
DO - 10.1080/15287394.2021.1969304
M3 - Article
C2 - 34474657
AN - SCOPUS:85114405609
SN - 1528-7394
VL - 85
SP - 14
EP - 28
JO - Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health - Part A: Current Issues
JF - Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health - Part A: Current Issues
IS - 1
ER -