Global, regional, and national deaths, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years, and years lived with disability for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma, 1990–2015

a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Joan B. Soriano, Amanuel Alemu Abajobir, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Semaw Ferede Abera, Anurag Agrawal, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alam, Juma M. Alkaabi, Fatma Al-Maskari, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Alemayehu Amberbir, Yaw Ampem Amoako, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Josep M. Antó, Hamid Asayesh, Tesfay Mehari Atey & 103 others Euripide Frinel G.Arthur Avokpaho, Aleksandra Barac, Sanjay Basu, Neeraj Bedi, Isabela M. Bensenor, Adugnaw Berhane, Addisu Shunu Beyene, Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, Stan Biryukov, Dube Jara Boneya, Michael Brauer, David O. Carpenter, Daniel Casey, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Samath D. Dharmaratne, Huyen Phuc Do, Florian Fischer, Ayele Geleto, Aloke Gopal Ghoshal, Richard F. Gillum, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed Ginawi, Vipin Gupta, Simon I. Hay, Mohammad T. Hedayati, Nobuyuki Horita, H. Dean Hosgood, Howard D. Hosgood, Spencer Lewis James, Jost B. Jonas, Amir Kasaeian, Yousef Saleh Khader, Ibrahim A. Khalil, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Young Ho Khang, Jagdish Khubchandani, Luke D. Knibbs, Soewarta Kosen, Parvaiz A. Koul, G. Anil Kumar, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Xiaofeng Liang, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Azeem Majeed, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Treh Manhertz, Neal Marquez, Alem Mehari, George A. Mensah, Ted R. Miller, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Kedir Endris Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Mohsen Naghavi, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Grant Nguyen, Quyen Le Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Vuong Minh Nong, Jennifer Ifeoma Obi, Yewande E. Odeyemi, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Eyal Oren, Mahesh PA, Eun Kee Park, George C. Patton, Katherine Paulson, Mostafa Qorbani, Reginald Quansah, Anwar Rafay, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Salman Rawaf, Nik Reinig, Saeid Safiri, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez, Benn Sartorius, Miloje Savic, Monika Sawhney, Mika Shigematsu, Mari Smith, Fentaw Tadese, George D. Thurston, Roman Topor-Madry, Bach Xuan Tran, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Job F.M. van Boven, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Xia Wan, Andrea Werdecker, Sarah Wulf Hanson, Yuichiro Yano, Hassen Hamid Yimam, Naohiro Yonemoto, Chuanhua Yu, Zoubida Zaidi, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Christopher J.L. Murray, Theo Vos

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

322 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma are common diseases with a heterogeneous distribution worldwide. Here, we present methods and disease and risk estimates for COPD and asthma from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2015 study. The GBD study provides annual updates on estimates of deaths, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a summary measure of fatal and non-fatal disease outcomes, for over 300 diseases and injuries, for 188 countries from 1990 to the most recent year. Methods We estimated numbers of deaths due to COPD and asthma using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) tool. First, we analysed data from vital registration and verbal autopsy for the aggregate category of all chronic respiratory diseases. Subsequently, models were run for asthma and COPD relying on covariates to predict rates in countries that have incomplete or no vital registration data. Disease estimates for COPD and asthma were based on systematic reviews of published papers, unpublished reports, surveys, and health service encounter data from the USA. We used the Global Initiative of Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease spirometry-based definition as the reference for COPD and a reported diagnosis of asthma with current wheeze as the definition of asthma. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to derive estimates of prevalence and incidence. We estimated population-attributable fractions for risk factors for COPD and asthma from exposure data, relative risks, and a theoretical minimum exposure level. Results were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of income per capita, mean years of education over the age of 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings In 2015, 3·2 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1 million to 3·3 million) died from COPD worldwide, an increase of 11·6% (95% UI 5·3 to 19·8) compared with 1990. There was a decrease in age-standardised death rate of 41·9% (37·7 to 45·1) but this was counteracted by population growth and ageing of the global population. From 1990 to 2015, the prevalence of COPD increased by 44·2% (41·7 to 46·6), whereas age-standardised prevalence decreased by 14·7% (13·5 to 15·9). In 2015, 0·40 million people (0·36 million to 0·44 million) died from asthma, a decrease of 26·7% (−7·2 to 43·7) from 1990, and the age-standardised death rate decreased by 58·8% (39·0 to 69·0). The prevalence of asthma increased by 12·6% (9·0 to 16·4), whereas the age-standardised prevalence decreased by 17·7% (15·1 to 19·9). Age-standardised DALY rates due to COPD increased until the middle range of the SDI before reducing sharply. Age-standardised DALY rates due to asthma in both sexes decreased monotonically with rising SDI. The relation between with SDI and DALY rates due to asthma was attributed to variation in years of life lost (YLLs), whereas DALY rates due to COPD varied similarly for YLLs and years lived with disability across the SDI continuum. Smoking and ambient particulate matter were the main risk factors for COPD followed by household air pollution, occupational particulates, ozone, and secondhand smoke. Together, these risks explained 73·3% (95% UI 65·8 to 80·1) of DALYs due to COPD. Smoking and occupational asthmagens were the only risks quantified for asthma in GBD, accounting for 16·5% (14·6 to 18·7) of DALYs due to asthma. Interpretation Asthma was the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease worldwide in 2015, with twice the number of cases of COPD. Deaths from COPD were eight times more common than deaths from asthma. In 2015, COPD caused 2·6% of global DALYs and asthma 1·1% of global DALYs. Although there are laudable international collaborative efforts to make surveys of asthma and COPD more comparable, no consensus exists on case definitions and how to measure disease severity for population health measurements like GBD. Comparisons between countries and over time are important, as much of the chronic respiratory burden is either preventable or treatable with affordable interventions. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)691-706
Number of pages16
JournalThe Lancet Respiratory Medicine
Volume5
Issue number9
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 1 2017

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Quality-Adjusted Life Years
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
Asthma
Demography
Uncertainty
Global Burden of Disease
Chronic Disease
Smoking
Population
Tobacco Smoke Pollution
Particulate Matter
Mortality
Birth Rate
Ozone
Population Growth
Spirometry
Air Pollution
Wounds and Injuries

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine

Cite this

Global, regional, and national deaths, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years, and years lived with disability for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma, 1990–2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. / Soriano, Joan B.; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Agrawal, Anurag; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Aichour, Amani Nidhal; Aichour, Ibtihel; Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore; Alkaabi, Juma M.; Al-Maskari, Fatma; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amberbir, Alemayehu; Amoako, Yaw Ampem; Ansha, Mustafa Geleto; Antó, Josep M.; Asayesh, Hamid; Atey, Tesfay Mehari; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G.Arthur; Barac, Aleksandra; Basu, Sanjay; Bedi, Neeraj; Bensenor, Isabela M.; Berhane, Adugnaw; Beyene, Addisu Shunu; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Biryukov, Stan; Boneya, Dube Jara; Brauer, Michael; Carpenter, David O.; Casey, Daniel; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dharmaratne, Samath D.; Do, Huyen Phuc; Fischer, Florian; Geleto, Ayele; Ghoshal, Aloke Gopal; Gillum, Richard F.; Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed; Gupta, Vipin; Hay, Simon I.; Hedayati, Mohammad T.; Horita, Nobuyuki; Hosgood, H. Dean; Hosgood, Howard D.; James, Spencer Lewis; Jonas, Jost B.; Kasaeian, Amir; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khalil, Ibrahim A.; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khang, Young Ho; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Knibbs, Luke D.; Kosen, Soewarta; Koul, Parvaiz A.; Kumar, G. Anil; Leshargie, Cheru Tesema; Liang, Xiaofeng; El Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd; Majeed, Azeem; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Manhertz, Treh; Marquez, Neal; Mehari, Alem; Mensah, George A.; Miller, Ted R.; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin; Mohammed, Kedir Endris; Mohammed, Shafiu; Mokdad, Ali H.; Naghavi, Mohsen; Nguyen, Cuong Tat; Nguyen, Grant; Le Nguyen, Quyen; Nguyen, Trang Huyen; Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini; Nong, Vuong Minh; Obi, Jennifer Ifeoma; Odeyemi, Yewande E.; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Oren, Eyal; PA, Mahesh; Park, Eun Kee; Patton, George C.; Paulson, Katherine; Qorbani, Mostafa; Quansah, Reginald; Rafay, Anwar; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Rawaf, Salman; Reinig, Nik; Safiri, Saeid; Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo; Sartorius, Benn; Savic, Miloje; Sawhney, Monika; Shigematsu, Mika; Smith, Mari; Tadese, Fentaw; Thurston, George D.; Topor-Madry, Roman; Tran, Bach Xuan; Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna; van Boven, Job F.M.; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wan, Xia; Werdecker, Andrea; Hanson, Sarah Wulf; Yano, Yuichiro; Yimam, Hassen Hamid; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaidi, Zoubida; El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa; Murray, Christopher J.L.; Vos, Theo.

In: The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Vol. 5, No. 9, 01.09.2017, p. 691-706.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Soriano, JB, Abajobir, AA, Abate, KH, Abera, SF, Agrawal, A, Ahmed, MB, Aichour, AN, Aichour, I, Aichour, MTE, Alam, K, Alam, N, Alkaabi, JM, Al-Maskari, F, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amberbir, A, Amoako, YA, Ansha, MG, Antó, JM, Asayesh, H, Atey, TM, Avokpaho, EFGA, Barac, A, Basu, S, Bedi, N, Bensenor, IM, Berhane, A, Beyene, AS, Bhutta, ZA, Biryukov, S, Boneya, DJ, Brauer, M, Carpenter, DO, Casey, D, Christopher, DJ, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dharmaratne, SD, Do, HP, Fischer, F, Geleto, A, Ghoshal, AG, Gillum, RF, Ginawi, IAM, Gupta, V, Hay, SI, Hedayati, MT, Horita, N, Hosgood, HD, Hosgood, HD, James, SL, Jonas, JB, Kasaeian, A, Khader, YS, Khalil, IA, Khan, EA, Khang, YH, Khubchandani, J, Knibbs, LD, Kosen, S, Koul, PA, Kumar, GA, Leshargie, CT, Liang, X, El Razek, HMA, Majeed, A, Malta, DC, Manhertz, T, Marquez, N, Mehari, A, Mensah, GA, Miller, TR, Mohammad, KA, Mohammed, KE, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Naghavi, M, Nguyen, CT, Nguyen, G, Le Nguyen, Q, Nguyen, TH, Ningrum, DNA, Nong, VM, Obi, JI, Odeyemi, YE, Ogbo, FA, Oren, E, PA, M, Park, EK, Patton, GC, Paulson, K, Qorbani, M, Quansah, R, Rafay, A, Rahman, MHU, Rai, RK, Rawaf, S, Reinig, N, Safiri, S, Sarmiento-Suarez, R, Sartorius, B, Savic, M, Sawhney, M, Shigematsu, M, Smith, M, Tadese, F, Thurston, GD, Topor-Madry, R, Tran, BX, Ukwaja, KN, van Boven, JFM, Vlassov, VV, Vollset, SE, Wan, X, Werdecker, A, Hanson, SW, Yano, Y, Yimam, HH, Yonemoto, N, Yu, C, Zaidi, Z, El Sayed Zaki, M, Murray, CJL & Vos, T 2017, 'Global, regional, and national deaths, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years, and years lived with disability for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015', The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, vol. 5, no. 9, pp. 691-706. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(17)30293-X
Soriano, Joan B. ; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu ; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen ; Abera, Semaw Ferede ; Agrawal, Anurag ; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir ; Aichour, Amani Nidhal ; Aichour, Ibtihel ; Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine ; Alam, Khurshid ; Alam, Noore ; Alkaabi, Juma M. ; Al-Maskari, Fatma ; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson ; Amberbir, Alemayehu ; Amoako, Yaw Ampem ; Ansha, Mustafa Geleto ; Antó, Josep M. ; Asayesh, Hamid ; Atey, Tesfay Mehari ; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G.Arthur ; Barac, Aleksandra ; Basu, Sanjay ; Bedi, Neeraj ; Bensenor, Isabela M. ; Berhane, Adugnaw ; Beyene, Addisu Shunu ; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. ; Biryukov, Stan ; Boneya, Dube Jara ; Brauer, Michael ; Carpenter, David O. ; Casey, Daniel ; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas ; Dandona, Lalit ; Dandona, Rakhi ; Dharmaratne, Samath D. ; Do, Huyen Phuc ; Fischer, Florian ; Geleto, Ayele ; Ghoshal, Aloke Gopal ; Gillum, Richard F. ; Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed ; Gupta, Vipin ; Hay, Simon I. ; Hedayati, Mohammad T. ; Horita, Nobuyuki ; Hosgood, H. Dean ; Hosgood, Howard D. ; James, Spencer Lewis ; Jonas, Jost B. ; Kasaeian, Amir ; Khader, Yousef Saleh ; Khalil, Ibrahim A. ; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad ; Khang, Young Ho ; Khubchandani, Jagdish ; Knibbs, Luke D. ; Kosen, Soewarta ; Koul, Parvaiz A. ; Kumar, G. Anil ; Leshargie, Cheru Tesema ; Liang, Xiaofeng ; El Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd ; Majeed, Azeem ; Malta, Deborah Carvalho ; Manhertz, Treh ; Marquez, Neal ; Mehari, Alem ; Mensah, George A. ; Miller, Ted R. ; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin ; Mohammed, Kedir Endris ; Mohammed, Shafiu ; Mokdad, Ali H. ; Naghavi, Mohsen ; Nguyen, Cuong Tat ; Nguyen, Grant ; Le Nguyen, Quyen ; Nguyen, Trang Huyen ; Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini ; Nong, Vuong Minh ; Obi, Jennifer Ifeoma ; Odeyemi, Yewande E. ; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene ; Oren, Eyal ; PA, Mahesh ; Park, Eun Kee ; Patton, George C. ; Paulson, Katherine ; Qorbani, Mostafa ; Quansah, Reginald ; Rafay, Anwar ; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur ; Rai, Rajesh Kumar ; Rawaf, Salman ; Reinig, Nik ; Safiri, Saeid ; Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo ; Sartorius, Benn ; Savic, Miloje ; Sawhney, Monika ; Shigematsu, Mika ; Smith, Mari ; Tadese, Fentaw ; Thurston, George D. ; Topor-Madry, Roman ; Tran, Bach Xuan ; Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna ; van Boven, Job F.M. ; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich ; Vollset, Stein Emil ; Wan, Xia ; Werdecker, Andrea ; Hanson, Sarah Wulf ; Yano, Yuichiro ; Yimam, Hassen Hamid ; Yonemoto, Naohiro ; Yu, Chuanhua ; Zaidi, Zoubida ; El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa ; Murray, Christopher J.L. ; Vos, Theo. / Global, regional, and national deaths, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years, and years lived with disability for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma, 1990–2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. In: The Lancet Respiratory Medicine. 2017 ; Vol. 5, No. 9. pp. 691-706.
@article{cb468284719c488c9db0d5dc71955515,
title = "Global, regional, and national deaths, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years, and years lived with disability for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015",
abstract = "Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma are common diseases with a heterogeneous distribution worldwide. Here, we present methods and disease and risk estimates for COPD and asthma from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2015 study. The GBD study provides annual updates on estimates of deaths, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a summary measure of fatal and non-fatal disease outcomes, for over 300 diseases and injuries, for 188 countries from 1990 to the most recent year. Methods We estimated numbers of deaths due to COPD and asthma using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) tool. First, we analysed data from vital registration and verbal autopsy for the aggregate category of all chronic respiratory diseases. Subsequently, models were run for asthma and COPD relying on covariates to predict rates in countries that have incomplete or no vital registration data. Disease estimates for COPD and asthma were based on systematic reviews of published papers, unpublished reports, surveys, and health service encounter data from the USA. We used the Global Initiative of Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease spirometry-based definition as the reference for COPD and a reported diagnosis of asthma with current wheeze as the definition of asthma. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to derive estimates of prevalence and incidence. We estimated population-attributable fractions for risk factors for COPD and asthma from exposure data, relative risks, and a theoretical minimum exposure level. Results were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of income per capita, mean years of education over the age of 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings In 2015, 3·2 million people (95{\%} uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1 million to 3·3 million) died from COPD worldwide, an increase of 11·6{\%} (95{\%} UI 5·3 to 19·8) compared with 1990. There was a decrease in age-standardised death rate of 41·9{\%} (37·7 to 45·1) but this was counteracted by population growth and ageing of the global population. From 1990 to 2015, the prevalence of COPD increased by 44·2{\%} (41·7 to 46·6), whereas age-standardised prevalence decreased by 14·7{\%} (13·5 to 15·9). In 2015, 0·40 million people (0·36 million to 0·44 million) died from asthma, a decrease of 26·7{\%} (−7·2 to 43·7) from 1990, and the age-standardised death rate decreased by 58·8{\%} (39·0 to 69·0). The prevalence of asthma increased by 12·6{\%} (9·0 to 16·4), whereas the age-standardised prevalence decreased by 17·7{\%} (15·1 to 19·9). Age-standardised DALY rates due to COPD increased until the middle range of the SDI before reducing sharply. Age-standardised DALY rates due to asthma in both sexes decreased monotonically with rising SDI. The relation between with SDI and DALY rates due to asthma was attributed to variation in years of life lost (YLLs), whereas DALY rates due to COPD varied similarly for YLLs and years lived with disability across the SDI continuum. Smoking and ambient particulate matter were the main risk factors for COPD followed by household air pollution, occupational particulates, ozone, and secondhand smoke. Together, these risks explained 73·3{\%} (95{\%} UI 65·8 to 80·1) of DALYs due to COPD. Smoking and occupational asthmagens were the only risks quantified for asthma in GBD, accounting for 16·5{\%} (14·6 to 18·7) of DALYs due to asthma. Interpretation Asthma was the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease worldwide in 2015, with twice the number of cases of COPD. Deaths from COPD were eight times more common than deaths from asthma. In 2015, COPD caused 2·6{\%} of global DALYs and asthma 1·1{\%} of global DALYs. Although there are laudable international collaborative efforts to make surveys of asthma and COPD more comparable, no consensus exists on case definitions and how to measure disease severity for population health measurements like GBD. Comparisons between countries and over time are important, as much of the chronic respiratory burden is either preventable or treatable with affordable interventions. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.",
author = "Soriano, {Joan B.} and Abajobir, {Amanuel Alemu} and Abate, {Kalkidan Hassen} and Abera, {Semaw Ferede} and Anurag Agrawal and Ahmed, {Muktar Beshir} and Aichour, {Amani Nidhal} and Ibtihel Aichour and Aichour, {Miloud Taki Eddine} and Khurshid Alam and Noore Alam and Alkaabi, {Juma M.} and Fatma Al-Maskari and Nelson Alvis-Guzman and Alemayehu Amberbir and Amoako, {Yaw Ampem} and Ansha, {Mustafa Geleto} and Ant{\'o}, {Josep M.} and Hamid Asayesh and Atey, {Tesfay Mehari} and Avokpaho, {Euripide Frinel G.Arthur} and Aleksandra Barac and Sanjay Basu and Neeraj Bedi and Bensenor, {Isabela M.} and Adugnaw Berhane and Beyene, {Addisu Shunu} and Bhutta, {Zulfiqar A.} and Stan Biryukov and Boneya, {Dube Jara} and Michael Brauer and Carpenter, {David O.} and Daniel Casey and Christopher, {Devasahayam Jesudas} and Lalit Dandona and Rakhi Dandona and Dharmaratne, {Samath D.} and Do, {Huyen Phuc} and Florian Fischer and Ayele Geleto and Ghoshal, {Aloke Gopal} and Gillum, {Richard F.} and Ginawi, {Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed} and Vipin Gupta and Hay, {Simon I.} and Hedayati, {Mohammad T.} and Nobuyuki Horita and Hosgood, {H. Dean} and Hosgood, {Howard D.} and James, {Spencer Lewis} and Jonas, {Jost B.} and Amir Kasaeian and Khader, {Yousef Saleh} and Khalil, {Ibrahim A.} and Khan, {Ejaz Ahmad} and Khang, {Young Ho} and Jagdish Khubchandani and Knibbs, {Luke D.} and Soewarta Kosen and Koul, {Parvaiz A.} and Kumar, {G. Anil} and Leshargie, {Cheru Tesema} and Xiaofeng Liang and {El Razek}, {Hassan Magdy Abd} and Azeem Majeed and Malta, {Deborah Carvalho} and Treh Manhertz and Neal Marquez and Alem Mehari and Mensah, {George A.} and Miller, {Ted R.} and Mohammad, {Karzan Abdulmuhsin} and Mohammed, {Kedir Endris} and Shafiu Mohammed and Mokdad, {Ali H.} and Mohsen Naghavi and Nguyen, {Cuong Tat} and Grant Nguyen and {Le Nguyen}, Quyen and Nguyen, {Trang Huyen} and Ningrum, {Dina Nur Anggraini} and Nong, {Vuong Minh} and Obi, {Jennifer Ifeoma} and Odeyemi, {Yewande E.} and Ogbo, {Felix Akpojene} and Eyal Oren and Mahesh PA and Park, {Eun Kee} and Patton, {George C.} and Katherine Paulson and Mostafa Qorbani and Reginald Quansah and Anwar Rafay and Rahman, {Mohammad Hifz Ur} and Rai, {Rajesh Kumar} and Salman Rawaf and Nik Reinig and Saeid Safiri and Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez and Benn Sartorius and Miloje Savic and Monika Sawhney and Mika Shigematsu and Mari Smith and Fentaw Tadese and Thurston, {George D.} and Roman Topor-Madry and Tran, {Bach Xuan} and Ukwaja, {Kingsley Nnanna} and {van Boven}, {Job F.M.} and Vlassov, {Vasiliy Victorovich} and Vollset, {Stein Emil} and Xia Wan and Andrea Werdecker and Hanson, {Sarah Wulf} and Yuichiro Yano and Yimam, {Hassen Hamid} and Naohiro Yonemoto and Chuanhua Yu and Zoubida Zaidi and {El Sayed Zaki}, Maysaa and Murray, {Christopher J.L.} and Theo Vos",
year = "2017",
month = "9",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/S2213-2600(17)30293-X",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "5",
pages = "691--706",
journal = "The Lancet Respiratory Medicine",
issn = "2213-2600",
publisher = "Elsevier Limited",
number = "9",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global, regional, and national deaths, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years, and years lived with disability for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma, 1990–2015

T2 - a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

AU - Soriano, Joan B.

AU - Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu

AU - Abate, Kalkidan Hassen

AU - Abera, Semaw Ferede

AU - Agrawal, Anurag

AU - Ahmed, Muktar Beshir

AU - Aichour, Amani Nidhal

AU - Aichour, Ibtihel

AU - Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine

AU - Alam, Khurshid

AU - Alam, Noore

AU - Alkaabi, Juma M.

AU - Al-Maskari, Fatma

AU - Alvis-Guzman, Nelson

AU - Amberbir, Alemayehu

AU - Amoako, Yaw Ampem

AU - Ansha, Mustafa Geleto

AU - Antó, Josep M.

AU - Asayesh, Hamid

AU - Atey, Tesfay Mehari

AU - Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G.Arthur

AU - Barac, Aleksandra

AU - Basu, Sanjay

AU - Bedi, Neeraj

AU - Bensenor, Isabela M.

AU - Berhane, Adugnaw

AU - Beyene, Addisu Shunu

AU - Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.

AU - Biryukov, Stan

AU - Boneya, Dube Jara

AU - Brauer, Michael

AU - Carpenter, David O.

AU - Casey, Daniel

AU - Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas

AU - Dandona, Lalit

AU - Dandona, Rakhi

AU - Dharmaratne, Samath D.

AU - Do, Huyen Phuc

AU - Fischer, Florian

AU - Geleto, Ayele

AU - Ghoshal, Aloke Gopal

AU - Gillum, Richard F.

AU - Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed

AU - Gupta, Vipin

AU - Hay, Simon I.

AU - Hedayati, Mohammad T.

AU - Horita, Nobuyuki

AU - Hosgood, H. Dean

AU - Hosgood, Howard D.

AU - James, Spencer Lewis

AU - Jonas, Jost B.

AU - Kasaeian, Amir

AU - Khader, Yousef Saleh

AU - Khalil, Ibrahim A.

AU - Khan, Ejaz Ahmad

AU - Khang, Young Ho

AU - Khubchandani, Jagdish

AU - Knibbs, Luke D.

AU - Kosen, Soewarta

AU - Koul, Parvaiz A.

AU - Kumar, G. Anil

AU - Leshargie, Cheru Tesema

AU - Liang, Xiaofeng

AU - El Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd

AU - Majeed, Azeem

AU - Malta, Deborah Carvalho

AU - Manhertz, Treh

AU - Marquez, Neal

AU - Mehari, Alem

AU - Mensah, George A.

AU - Miller, Ted R.

AU - Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin

AU - Mohammed, Kedir Endris

AU - Mohammed, Shafiu

AU - Mokdad, Ali H.

AU - Naghavi, Mohsen

AU - Nguyen, Cuong Tat

AU - Nguyen, Grant

AU - Le Nguyen, Quyen

AU - Nguyen, Trang Huyen

AU - Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini

AU - Nong, Vuong Minh

AU - Obi, Jennifer Ifeoma

AU - Odeyemi, Yewande E.

AU - Ogbo, Felix Akpojene

AU - Oren, Eyal

AU - PA, Mahesh

AU - Park, Eun Kee

AU - Patton, George C.

AU - Paulson, Katherine

AU - Qorbani, Mostafa

AU - Quansah, Reginald

AU - Rafay, Anwar

AU - Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur

AU - Rai, Rajesh Kumar

AU - Rawaf, Salman

AU - Reinig, Nik

AU - Safiri, Saeid

AU - Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo

AU - Sartorius, Benn

AU - Savic, Miloje

AU - Sawhney, Monika

AU - Shigematsu, Mika

AU - Smith, Mari

AU - Tadese, Fentaw

AU - Thurston, George D.

AU - Topor-Madry, Roman

AU - Tran, Bach Xuan

AU - Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna

AU - van Boven, Job F.M.

AU - Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich

AU - Vollset, Stein Emil

AU - Wan, Xia

AU - Werdecker, Andrea

AU - Hanson, Sarah Wulf

AU - Yano, Yuichiro

AU - Yimam, Hassen Hamid

AU - Yonemoto, Naohiro

AU - Yu, Chuanhua

AU - Zaidi, Zoubida

AU - El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa

AU - Murray, Christopher J.L.

AU - Vos, Theo

PY - 2017/9/1

Y1 - 2017/9/1

N2 - Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma are common diseases with a heterogeneous distribution worldwide. Here, we present methods and disease and risk estimates for COPD and asthma from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2015 study. The GBD study provides annual updates on estimates of deaths, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a summary measure of fatal and non-fatal disease outcomes, for over 300 diseases and injuries, for 188 countries from 1990 to the most recent year. Methods We estimated numbers of deaths due to COPD and asthma using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) tool. First, we analysed data from vital registration and verbal autopsy for the aggregate category of all chronic respiratory diseases. Subsequently, models were run for asthma and COPD relying on covariates to predict rates in countries that have incomplete or no vital registration data. Disease estimates for COPD and asthma were based on systematic reviews of published papers, unpublished reports, surveys, and health service encounter data from the USA. We used the Global Initiative of Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease spirometry-based definition as the reference for COPD and a reported diagnosis of asthma with current wheeze as the definition of asthma. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to derive estimates of prevalence and incidence. We estimated population-attributable fractions for risk factors for COPD and asthma from exposure data, relative risks, and a theoretical minimum exposure level. Results were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of income per capita, mean years of education over the age of 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings In 2015, 3·2 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1 million to 3·3 million) died from COPD worldwide, an increase of 11·6% (95% UI 5·3 to 19·8) compared with 1990. There was a decrease in age-standardised death rate of 41·9% (37·7 to 45·1) but this was counteracted by population growth and ageing of the global population. From 1990 to 2015, the prevalence of COPD increased by 44·2% (41·7 to 46·6), whereas age-standardised prevalence decreased by 14·7% (13·5 to 15·9). In 2015, 0·40 million people (0·36 million to 0·44 million) died from asthma, a decrease of 26·7% (−7·2 to 43·7) from 1990, and the age-standardised death rate decreased by 58·8% (39·0 to 69·0). The prevalence of asthma increased by 12·6% (9·0 to 16·4), whereas the age-standardised prevalence decreased by 17·7% (15·1 to 19·9). Age-standardised DALY rates due to COPD increased until the middle range of the SDI before reducing sharply. Age-standardised DALY rates due to asthma in both sexes decreased monotonically with rising SDI. The relation between with SDI and DALY rates due to asthma was attributed to variation in years of life lost (YLLs), whereas DALY rates due to COPD varied similarly for YLLs and years lived with disability across the SDI continuum. Smoking and ambient particulate matter were the main risk factors for COPD followed by household air pollution, occupational particulates, ozone, and secondhand smoke. Together, these risks explained 73·3% (95% UI 65·8 to 80·1) of DALYs due to COPD. Smoking and occupational asthmagens were the only risks quantified for asthma in GBD, accounting for 16·5% (14·6 to 18·7) of DALYs due to asthma. Interpretation Asthma was the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease worldwide in 2015, with twice the number of cases of COPD. Deaths from COPD were eight times more common than deaths from asthma. In 2015, COPD caused 2·6% of global DALYs and asthma 1·1% of global DALYs. Although there are laudable international collaborative efforts to make surveys of asthma and COPD more comparable, no consensus exists on case definitions and how to measure disease severity for population health measurements like GBD. Comparisons between countries and over time are important, as much of the chronic respiratory burden is either preventable or treatable with affordable interventions. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

AB - Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma are common diseases with a heterogeneous distribution worldwide. Here, we present methods and disease and risk estimates for COPD and asthma from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2015 study. The GBD study provides annual updates on estimates of deaths, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a summary measure of fatal and non-fatal disease outcomes, for over 300 diseases and injuries, for 188 countries from 1990 to the most recent year. Methods We estimated numbers of deaths due to COPD and asthma using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) tool. First, we analysed data from vital registration and verbal autopsy for the aggregate category of all chronic respiratory diseases. Subsequently, models were run for asthma and COPD relying on covariates to predict rates in countries that have incomplete or no vital registration data. Disease estimates for COPD and asthma were based on systematic reviews of published papers, unpublished reports, surveys, and health service encounter data from the USA. We used the Global Initiative of Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease spirometry-based definition as the reference for COPD and a reported diagnosis of asthma with current wheeze as the definition of asthma. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to derive estimates of prevalence and incidence. We estimated population-attributable fractions for risk factors for COPD and asthma from exposure data, relative risks, and a theoretical minimum exposure level. Results were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of income per capita, mean years of education over the age of 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings In 2015, 3·2 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1 million to 3·3 million) died from COPD worldwide, an increase of 11·6% (95% UI 5·3 to 19·8) compared with 1990. There was a decrease in age-standardised death rate of 41·9% (37·7 to 45·1) but this was counteracted by population growth and ageing of the global population. From 1990 to 2015, the prevalence of COPD increased by 44·2% (41·7 to 46·6), whereas age-standardised prevalence decreased by 14·7% (13·5 to 15·9). In 2015, 0·40 million people (0·36 million to 0·44 million) died from asthma, a decrease of 26·7% (−7·2 to 43·7) from 1990, and the age-standardised death rate decreased by 58·8% (39·0 to 69·0). The prevalence of asthma increased by 12·6% (9·0 to 16·4), whereas the age-standardised prevalence decreased by 17·7% (15·1 to 19·9). Age-standardised DALY rates due to COPD increased until the middle range of the SDI before reducing sharply. Age-standardised DALY rates due to asthma in both sexes decreased monotonically with rising SDI. The relation between with SDI and DALY rates due to asthma was attributed to variation in years of life lost (YLLs), whereas DALY rates due to COPD varied similarly for YLLs and years lived with disability across the SDI continuum. Smoking and ambient particulate matter were the main risk factors for COPD followed by household air pollution, occupational particulates, ozone, and secondhand smoke. Together, these risks explained 73·3% (95% UI 65·8 to 80·1) of DALYs due to COPD. Smoking and occupational asthmagens were the only risks quantified for asthma in GBD, accounting for 16·5% (14·6 to 18·7) of DALYs due to asthma. Interpretation Asthma was the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease worldwide in 2015, with twice the number of cases of COPD. Deaths from COPD were eight times more common than deaths from asthma. In 2015, COPD caused 2·6% of global DALYs and asthma 1·1% of global DALYs. Although there are laudable international collaborative efforts to make surveys of asthma and COPD more comparable, no consensus exists on case definitions and how to measure disease severity for population health measurements like GBD. Comparisons between countries and over time are important, as much of the chronic respiratory burden is either preventable or treatable with affordable interventions. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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U2 - 10.1016/S2213-2600(17)30293-X

DO - 10.1016/S2213-2600(17)30293-X

M3 - Article

VL - 5

SP - 691

EP - 706

JO - The Lancet Respiratory Medicine

JF - The Lancet Respiratory Medicine

SN - 2213-2600

IS - 9

ER -