TY - JOUR
T1 - Effects of New York’s Executive Order on Face Mask Use on COVID-19 Infections and Mortality
T2 - A Modeling Study
AU - Shen, Mingwang
AU - Zu, Jian
AU - Fairley, Christopher K.
AU - Pagán, José A.
AU - Ferket, Bart
AU - Liu, Bian
AU - Yi, Stella S.
AU - Chambers, Earle
AU - Li, Guoqiang
AU - Guo, Yuming
AU - Rong, Libin
AU - Xiao, Yanni
AU - Zhuang, Guihua
AU - Zebrowski, Alexis
AU - Carr, Brendan G.
AU - Li, Yan
AU - Zhang, Lei
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The New York Academy of Medicine.
PY - 2021/4
Y1 - 2021/4
N2 - There is growing evidence on the effect of face mask use in controlling the spread of COVID-19. However, few studies have examined the effect of local face mask policies on the pandemic. In this study, we developed a dynamic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission in New York City (NYC), which was the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. We used data on daily and cumulative COVID-19 infections and deaths from the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene to calibrate and validate our model. We then used the model to assess the effect of the executive order on face mask use on infections and deaths due to COVID-19 in NYC. Our results showed that the executive order on face mask use was estimated to avert 99,517 (95% CIs 72,723–126,312) COVID-19 infections and 7978 (5692–10,265) deaths in NYC. If the executive order was implemented 1 week earlier (on April 10), the averted infections and deaths would be 111,475 (81,593–141,356) and 9017 (6446–11,589), respectively. If the executive order was implemented 2 weeks earlier (on April 3 when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended face mask use), the averted infections and deaths would be 128,598 (94,373–162,824) and 10,515 (7540–13,489), respectively. Our study provides public health practitioners and policymakers with evidence on the importance of implementing face mask policies in local areas as early as possible to control the spread of COVID-19 and reduce mortality.
AB - There is growing evidence on the effect of face mask use in controlling the spread of COVID-19. However, few studies have examined the effect of local face mask policies on the pandemic. In this study, we developed a dynamic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission in New York City (NYC), which was the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. We used data on daily and cumulative COVID-19 infections and deaths from the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene to calibrate and validate our model. We then used the model to assess the effect of the executive order on face mask use on infections and deaths due to COVID-19 in NYC. Our results showed that the executive order on face mask use was estimated to avert 99,517 (95% CIs 72,723–126,312) COVID-19 infections and 7978 (5692–10,265) deaths in NYC. If the executive order was implemented 1 week earlier (on April 10), the averted infections and deaths would be 111,475 (81,593–141,356) and 9017 (6446–11,589), respectively. If the executive order was implemented 2 weeks earlier (on April 3 when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended face mask use), the averted infections and deaths would be 128,598 (94,373–162,824) and 10,515 (7540–13,489), respectively. Our study provides public health practitioners and policymakers with evidence on the importance of implementing face mask policies in local areas as early as possible to control the spread of COVID-19 and reduce mortality.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Mitigation strategy
KW - Non-pharmaceutical intervention
KW - Urban health
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85101838334&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85101838334&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s11524-021-00517-2
DO - 10.1007/s11524-021-00517-2
M3 - Article
C2 - 33649905
AN - SCOPUS:85101838334
SN - 1099-3460
VL - 98
SP - 197
EP - 204
JO - Journal of Urban Health
JF - Journal of Urban Health
IS - 2
ER -
