Does EuroSCORE predict length of stay and specific postoperative complications after cardiac surgery?

Ioannis K. Toumpoulis, Constantine E. Anagnostopoulos, Daniel G. Swistel, Joseph DeRose

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

105 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the performance of EuroSCORE in the prediction of in-hospital postoperative length of stay and specific major postoperative complications after cardiac surgery. Methods: Data on 5051 consecutive patients (isolated [74.4%] or combined coronary artery bypass grafting [11.1%], valve surgery [12.0%] and thoracic aortic surgery [2.5%]) were prospectively collected. The EuroSCORE model (standard and logistic) was used to predict in-hospital mortality, 3-month mortality, prolonged length of stay (>12 days) and major postoperative complications (intraoperative stroke, stroke over 24 h, postoperative myocardial infarction, deep sternal wound infection, re-exploration for bleeding, sepsis and/or endocarditis, gastrointestinal complications, postoperative renal failure and respiratory failure). A C statistic (or the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) was used to test the discrimination of the EuroSCORE. The calibration of the model was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic. Results: In-hospital mortality was 3.9% and 16.1% of patients had one or more major complications. Standard EuroSCORE showed very good discriminatory ability and good calibration in predicting in-hospital mortality (C statistic: 0.76, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.449) and postoperative renal failure (C statistic: 0.79, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.089) and good discriminatory ability in predicting sepsis and/or endocarditis (C statistic: 0.74, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.653), 3-month mortality (C statistic: 0.73, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.097), prolonged length of stay (C statistic: 0.71, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.051) and respiratory failure (C statistic: 0.71, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.714). There were no differences in terms of the discriminatory ability in predicting these outcomes between standard and logistic EuroSCORE. However, logistic EuroSCORE showed no calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow: P<0.05) except for sepsis and/or endocarditis (Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.078). EuroSCORE was unable to predict other major complications such as intraoperative stroke, stroke over 24 h, postoperative myocardial infarction, deep sternal wound infection, gastrointestinal complications and re-exploration for bleeding. Conclusions: EuroSCORE can be used to predict not only in-hospital mortality, for which it was originally designed, but also 3-month mortality, prolonged length of stay and specific postoperative complications such as renal failure, sepsis and/or endocarditis and respiratory failure in the whole context of cardiac surgery. These outcomes can be predicted accurately using the standard EuroSCORE which is very simple and easy in its calculation.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)128-133
Number of pages6
JournalEuropean Journal of Cardio-thoracic Surgery
Volume27
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 2005
Externally publishedYes

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Thoracic Surgery
Length of Stay
Hospital Mortality
Endocarditis
Sepsis
Stroke
Respiratory Insufficiency
Calibration
Renal Insufficiency
Wound Infection
Mortality
Myocardial Infarction
Hemorrhage
Coronary Artery Bypass
ROC Curve
Logistic Models

Keywords

  • Cardiac surgery
  • EuroSCORE
  • Length of stay
  • Postoperative complications

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
  • Surgery

Cite this

Does EuroSCORE predict length of stay and specific postoperative complications after cardiac surgery? / Toumpoulis, Ioannis K.; Anagnostopoulos, Constantine E.; Swistel, Daniel G.; DeRose, Joseph.

In: European Journal of Cardio-thoracic Surgery, Vol. 27, No. 1, 01.2005, p. 128-133.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Toumpoulis, Ioannis K. ; Anagnostopoulos, Constantine E. ; Swistel, Daniel G. ; DeRose, Joseph. / Does EuroSCORE predict length of stay and specific postoperative complications after cardiac surgery?. In: European Journal of Cardio-thoracic Surgery. 2005 ; Vol. 27, No. 1. pp. 128-133.
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abstract = "Objective: To evaluate the performance of EuroSCORE in the prediction of in-hospital postoperative length of stay and specific major postoperative complications after cardiac surgery. Methods: Data on 5051 consecutive patients (isolated [74.4{\%}] or combined coronary artery bypass grafting [11.1{\%}], valve surgery [12.0{\%}] and thoracic aortic surgery [2.5{\%}]) were prospectively collected. The EuroSCORE model (standard and logistic) was used to predict in-hospital mortality, 3-month mortality, prolonged length of stay (>12 days) and major postoperative complications (intraoperative stroke, stroke over 24 h, postoperative myocardial infarction, deep sternal wound infection, re-exploration for bleeding, sepsis and/or endocarditis, gastrointestinal complications, postoperative renal failure and respiratory failure). A C statistic (or the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) was used to test the discrimination of the EuroSCORE. The calibration of the model was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic. Results: In-hospital mortality was 3.9{\%} and 16.1{\%} of patients had one or more major complications. Standard EuroSCORE showed very good discriminatory ability and good calibration in predicting in-hospital mortality (C statistic: 0.76, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.449) and postoperative renal failure (C statistic: 0.79, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.089) and good discriminatory ability in predicting sepsis and/or endocarditis (C statistic: 0.74, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.653), 3-month mortality (C statistic: 0.73, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.097), prolonged length of stay (C statistic: 0.71, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.051) and respiratory failure (C statistic: 0.71, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.714). There were no differences in terms of the discriminatory ability in predicting these outcomes between standard and logistic EuroSCORE. However, logistic EuroSCORE showed no calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow: P<0.05) except for sepsis and/or endocarditis (Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.078). EuroSCORE was unable to predict other major complications such as intraoperative stroke, stroke over 24 h, postoperative myocardial infarction, deep sternal wound infection, gastrointestinal complications and re-exploration for bleeding. Conclusions: EuroSCORE can be used to predict not only in-hospital mortality, for which it was originally designed, but also 3-month mortality, prolonged length of stay and specific postoperative complications such as renal failure, sepsis and/or endocarditis and respiratory failure in the whole context of cardiac surgery. These outcomes can be predicted accurately using the standard EuroSCORE which is very simple and easy in its calculation.",
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AU - Anagnostopoulos, Constantine E.

AU - Swistel, Daniel G.

AU - DeRose, Joseph

PY - 2005/1

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N2 - Objective: To evaluate the performance of EuroSCORE in the prediction of in-hospital postoperative length of stay and specific major postoperative complications after cardiac surgery. Methods: Data on 5051 consecutive patients (isolated [74.4%] or combined coronary artery bypass grafting [11.1%], valve surgery [12.0%] and thoracic aortic surgery [2.5%]) were prospectively collected. The EuroSCORE model (standard and logistic) was used to predict in-hospital mortality, 3-month mortality, prolonged length of stay (>12 days) and major postoperative complications (intraoperative stroke, stroke over 24 h, postoperative myocardial infarction, deep sternal wound infection, re-exploration for bleeding, sepsis and/or endocarditis, gastrointestinal complications, postoperative renal failure and respiratory failure). A C statistic (or the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) was used to test the discrimination of the EuroSCORE. The calibration of the model was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic. Results: In-hospital mortality was 3.9% and 16.1% of patients had one or more major complications. Standard EuroSCORE showed very good discriminatory ability and good calibration in predicting in-hospital mortality (C statistic: 0.76, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.449) and postoperative renal failure (C statistic: 0.79, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.089) and good discriminatory ability in predicting sepsis and/or endocarditis (C statistic: 0.74, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.653), 3-month mortality (C statistic: 0.73, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.097), prolonged length of stay (C statistic: 0.71, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.051) and respiratory failure (C statistic: 0.71, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.714). There were no differences in terms of the discriminatory ability in predicting these outcomes between standard and logistic EuroSCORE. However, logistic EuroSCORE showed no calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow: P<0.05) except for sepsis and/or endocarditis (Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.078). EuroSCORE was unable to predict other major complications such as intraoperative stroke, stroke over 24 h, postoperative myocardial infarction, deep sternal wound infection, gastrointestinal complications and re-exploration for bleeding. Conclusions: EuroSCORE can be used to predict not only in-hospital mortality, for which it was originally designed, but also 3-month mortality, prolonged length of stay and specific postoperative complications such as renal failure, sepsis and/or endocarditis and respiratory failure in the whole context of cardiac surgery. These outcomes can be predicted accurately using the standard EuroSCORE which is very simple and easy in its calculation.

AB - Objective: To evaluate the performance of EuroSCORE in the prediction of in-hospital postoperative length of stay and specific major postoperative complications after cardiac surgery. Methods: Data on 5051 consecutive patients (isolated [74.4%] or combined coronary artery bypass grafting [11.1%], valve surgery [12.0%] and thoracic aortic surgery [2.5%]) were prospectively collected. The EuroSCORE model (standard and logistic) was used to predict in-hospital mortality, 3-month mortality, prolonged length of stay (>12 days) and major postoperative complications (intraoperative stroke, stroke over 24 h, postoperative myocardial infarction, deep sternal wound infection, re-exploration for bleeding, sepsis and/or endocarditis, gastrointestinal complications, postoperative renal failure and respiratory failure). A C statistic (or the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) was used to test the discrimination of the EuroSCORE. The calibration of the model was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic. Results: In-hospital mortality was 3.9% and 16.1% of patients had one or more major complications. Standard EuroSCORE showed very good discriminatory ability and good calibration in predicting in-hospital mortality (C statistic: 0.76, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.449) and postoperative renal failure (C statistic: 0.79, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.089) and good discriminatory ability in predicting sepsis and/or endocarditis (C statistic: 0.74, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.653), 3-month mortality (C statistic: 0.73, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.097), prolonged length of stay (C statistic: 0.71, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.051) and respiratory failure (C statistic: 0.71, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.714). There were no differences in terms of the discriminatory ability in predicting these outcomes between standard and logistic EuroSCORE. However, logistic EuroSCORE showed no calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow: P<0.05) except for sepsis and/or endocarditis (Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.078). EuroSCORE was unable to predict other major complications such as intraoperative stroke, stroke over 24 h, postoperative myocardial infarction, deep sternal wound infection, gastrointestinal complications and re-exploration for bleeding. Conclusions: EuroSCORE can be used to predict not only in-hospital mortality, for which it was originally designed, but also 3-month mortality, prolonged length of stay and specific postoperative complications such as renal failure, sepsis and/or endocarditis and respiratory failure in the whole context of cardiac surgery. These outcomes can be predicted accurately using the standard EuroSCORE which is very simple and easy in its calculation.

KW - Cardiac surgery

KW - EuroSCORE

KW - Length of stay

KW - Postoperative complications

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