@article{2c8292a5fa41456fbfc582edb04c08e7,
title = "Comparing Performance of Different Predictive Models in Estimating Disease Progression in Alzheimer Disease",
abstract = "Background: Automatic classification techniques provide tools to analyze complex data and predict disease progression. Methods: A total of 305 cognitively normal; 475 patients with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI); and 162 patients with dementia were included in this study. We compared the performance of 3 different methods in predicting progression from aMCI to dementia: (1) index-based model; (2) logistic regression (LR); and (3) ensemble linear discriminant (ELD) machine learning models. LR and ELD models were trained using data from cognitively normal and dementia subgroups, and subsequently were applied to aMCI subgroup to predict their disease progression. Results: Performance of ELD models were better than LR models in prediction of conversion from aMCI to Alzheimer dementia at all time frames. ELD models performed better when a larger number of features were used for prediction. Conclusion: Machine learning models have substantial potential to improve the predictive ability for cognitive outcomes.",
keywords = "Alzheimer disease, MCI, dementia, machine learning, predictive analytics",
author = "Ali Ezzati and Zammit, {Andrea R.} and Lipton, {Richard B.}",
note = "Funding Information: R.B.L. receives research support from the following sources unrelated to this manuscript: NIH: 2PO1 AG003949 (mPI), 5U10 NS077308 (PI), R21 AG056920 (Investigator), 1RF1 AG057531 (Site PI), RF1 AG054548 (Investigator), 1RO1 AG048642 (Investigator), R56 AG057548 (Investigator), U01062370 (Investigator), RO1 AG060933 (Investigator), RO1 AG062622 (Investigator), 1UG3FD006795 (mPI), 1U24NS113847 (Investigator), K23 NS09610 (Mentor), K23AG049466 (Mentor), K23 NS107643 (Mentor). He also receives support from the Migraine Research Foundation and the National Headache Foundation. He serves on the editorial board of Neurology, senior advisor to Headache, and associate editor to Cephalalgia. He has reviewed for the NIA and NINDS, holds stock options in eNeura Therapeutics and Biohaven Holdings; serves as a consultant, advisory board member, or has received honoraria from: Abbvie (Allergan), American Academy of Neurology, American Headache Society, Amgen, Avanir, Biohaven, Biovision, Boston Scientific, Dr. Reddy{\textquoteright}s (Promius), Electrocore, Eli Lilly, eNeura Therapeutics, Equinox, GlaxoSmithKline, Grifols, Lundbeck (Alder), Merck, Pernix, Pfizer, Supernus, Teva, Trigemina, Vector, Vedanta. He receives royalties from Wolff{\textquoteright}s Headache seventh and eighth edition, Oxford Press University, 2009, Wiley, and Informa. The remaining authors declare no conflicts of interest. Funding Information: This research is supported by grants from the National Institute of Health (NIA K23 AG063993, Ezzati, NIA K01AG054700, Zammit, NIA P01 AG03949, Lipton), the Alzheimer{\textquoteright}s Association (Ezzati, 2019-AACSF-641329), the Cure Alzheimer{\textquoteright}s Fund (Ezzati, Lipton), and the Leonard and Sylvia Marx Foundation (Lipton). Funding Information: Data collection and sharing for the ADNI project was funded by the Alzheimer{\textquoteright}s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) (National Institutes of Health Grant U01 AG024904) and DOD ADNI (Department of Defense award number W81XWH-12-2-0012). ADNI is funded by the National Institute on Aging, the National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, and through generous contributions from the following: AbbVie, Alzheimer{\textquoteright}s Association, Alzheimer{\textquoteright}s Drug Discovery Foundation, Araclon Biotech, BioClinica Inc., Biogen, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, CereSpir Inc., Cogstate, Eisai Inc., Elan Pharmaceuticals Inc., Eli Lilly and Company, EuroImmun, F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd and its affiliated company Genentech Inc., Fujirebio, GE Healthcare, IXICO Ltd., Janssen Alzheimer Immunotherapy Research & Development, LLC, Johnson & Johnson Pharmaceutical Research & Development LLC, Lumosity, Lundbeck, Merck & Co. Inc., Meso Scale Diagnostics, LLC, NeuroRx Research, Neurotrack Technologies, Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, Pfizer Inc., Piramal Imaging, Servier, Takeda Pharmaceutical Com-pany, and Transition Therapeutics. The Canadian Institutes of Health Research is providing funds to support ADNI clinical sites in Canada. Private sector contributions are facilitated by the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (www.fnih.org). The grantee organization is the Northern California Institute for Research and Education, and the study is coordinated by the Alzheimer{\textquoteright}s Therapeutic Research Institute at the University of Southern California. ADNI data are disseminated by the Laboratory for Neuro Imaging at the University of Southern California. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 Lippincott Williams and Wilkins. All rights reserved.",
year = "2022",
month = apr,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1097/WAD.0000000000000474",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "36",
pages = "176--179",
journal = "Alzheimer Disease and Associated Disorders",
issn = "0893-0341",
publisher = "Lippincott Williams and Wilkins",
number = "2",
}
