A tale of two futures

HIV and antiretroviral therapy in San Francisco

S. M. Blower, H. B. Gershengorn, R. M. Grant

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

308 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections and averting acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) deaths in the San Francisco gay community over the next 10 years was predicted. A transmission model was coupled with a statistical approach that enabled inclusion of a high degree of uncertainty in the potential treatment effects of ART (in terms of infectivity and survival), increase in risky behavior, and rate of emergence of drug resistance. Increasing the usage of ART in San Francisco would decrease the AIDS death rate and could substantially reduce the incidence rate.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)650-654
Number of pages5
JournalScience
Volume287
Issue number5453
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 28 2000
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

San Francisco
HIV
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
Virus Diseases
Therapeutics
Drug Resistance
Uncertainty
Survival
Mortality
Incidence

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

Cite this

Blower, S. M., Gershengorn, H. B., & Grant, R. M. (2000). A tale of two futures: HIV and antiretroviral therapy in San Francisco. Science, 287(5453), 650-654. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5453.650

A tale of two futures : HIV and antiretroviral therapy in San Francisco. / Blower, S. M.; Gershengorn, H. B.; Grant, R. M.

In: Science, Vol. 287, No. 5453, 28.01.2000, p. 650-654.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Blower, SM, Gershengorn, HB & Grant, RM 2000, 'A tale of two futures: HIV and antiretroviral therapy in San Francisco', Science, vol. 287, no. 5453, pp. 650-654. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5453.650
Blower, S. M. ; Gershengorn, H. B. ; Grant, R. M. / A tale of two futures : HIV and antiretroviral therapy in San Francisco. In: Science. 2000 ; Vol. 287, No. 5453. pp. 650-654.
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