A predictive model for SIVH risk in preterm infants and targeted indomethacin therapy for prevention

Rachana Singh; Samuel V. Gorstein; Frank Bednarek; Joseph H. Chou; Elisabeth C. McGowan; Paul F. Visintainer

doi:10.1038/srep02539

A predictive model for SIVH risk in preterm infants and targeted indomethacin therapy for prevention

Rachana Singh, Samuel V. Gorstein, Frank Bednarek, Joseph H. Chou, Elisabeth C. McGowan, Paul F. Visintainer

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

Prophylactic indomethacin may decrease Severe Intraventricular Hemorrhage (SIVH). Our goal was to develop a predictive model for SIVH using parameters available by six hours of age. De-identified data for preterm infants born ≤ 34 weeks gestational age was abstracted from Vermont Oxford Network database. Using clinical variables available by 6 hrs of age the model was developed, and validated. Statistical methods were used to evaluate the ability of the model to discriminate infants with and without SIVH and, to compare observed and predicted risk. The model achieved excellent discrimination as indicated by ROC curve of 0·85. A good agreement was noted between observed and predicted risk (HLtest: p = 0·22). Application of the model to patients receiving indomethacin suggests a benefit at the highest risk levels. We have developed a valid predictive model for predicting SIVH as well as shown that exposure to indomethacin decreases the incidence of SIVH overall.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	2539
Journal	Scientific reports
Volume	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/srep02539
State	Published - 2013
Externally published	Yes

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title = "A predictive model for SIVH risk in preterm infants and targeted indomethacin therapy for prevention",

abstract = "Prophylactic indomethacin may decrease Severe Intraventricular Hemorrhage (SIVH). Our goal was to develop a predictive model for SIVH using parameters available by six hours of age. De-identified data for preterm infants born ≤ 34 weeks gestational age was abstracted from Vermont Oxford Network database. Using clinical variables available by 6 hrs of age the model was developed, and validated. Statistical methods were used to evaluate the ability of the model to discriminate infants with and without SIVH and, to compare observed and predicted risk. The model achieved excellent discrimination as indicated by ROC curve of 0·85. A good agreement was noted between observed and predicted risk (HLtest: p = 0·22). Application of the model to patients receiving indomethacin suggests a benefit at the highest risk levels. We have developed a valid predictive model for predicting SIVH as well as shown that exposure to indomethacin decreases the incidence of SIVH overall.",

author = "Rachana Singh and Gorstein, {Samuel V.} and Frank Bednarek and Chou, {Joseph H.} and McGowan, {Elisabeth C.} and Visintainer, {Paul F.}",

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T1 - A predictive model for SIVH risk in preterm infants and targeted indomethacin therapy for prevention

AU - Singh, Rachana

AU - Gorstein, Samuel V.

AU - Bednarek, Frank

AU - Chou, Joseph H.

AU - McGowan, Elisabeth C.

AU - Visintainer, Paul F.

PY - 2013

Y1 - 2013

N2 - Prophylactic indomethacin may decrease Severe Intraventricular Hemorrhage (SIVH). Our goal was to develop a predictive model for SIVH using parameters available by six hours of age. De-identified data for preterm infants born ≤ 34 weeks gestational age was abstracted from Vermont Oxford Network database. Using clinical variables available by 6 hrs of age the model was developed, and validated. Statistical methods were used to evaluate the ability of the model to discriminate infants with and without SIVH and, to compare observed and predicted risk. The model achieved excellent discrimination as indicated by ROC curve of 0·85. A good agreement was noted between observed and predicted risk (HLtest: p = 0·22). Application of the model to patients receiving indomethacin suggests a benefit at the highest risk levels. We have developed a valid predictive model for predicting SIVH as well as shown that exposure to indomethacin decreases the incidence of SIVH overall.

AB - Prophylactic indomethacin may decrease Severe Intraventricular Hemorrhage (SIVH). Our goal was to develop a predictive model for SIVH using parameters available by six hours of age. De-identified data for preterm infants born ≤ 34 weeks gestational age was abstracted from Vermont Oxford Network database. Using clinical variables available by 6 hrs of age the model was developed, and validated. Statistical methods were used to evaluate the ability of the model to discriminate infants with and without SIVH and, to compare observed and predicted risk. The model achieved excellent discrimination as indicated by ROC curve of 0·85. A good agreement was noted between observed and predicted risk (HLtest: p = 0·22). Application of the model to patients receiving indomethacin suggests a benefit at the highest risk levels. We have developed a valid predictive model for predicting SIVH as well as shown that exposure to indomethacin decreases the incidence of SIVH overall.

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A predictive model for SIVH risk in preterm infants and targeted indomethacin therapy for prevention

Abstract

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