A Definitive Prognostication System for Patients With Thoracic Malignancies Diagnosed With Coronavirus Disease 2019: An Update From the TERAVOLT Registry

TERAVOLT study group

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Scopus citations

Abstract

Introduction: Patients with thoracic malignancies are at increased risk for mortality from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and a large number of intertwined prognostic variables have been identified so far. Methods: Capitalizing data from the Thoracic Cancers International COVID-19 Collaboration (TERAVOLT) registry, a global study created with the aim of describing the impact of COVID-19 in patients with thoracic malignancies, we used a clustering approach, a fast-backward step-down selection procedure, and a tree-based model to screen and optimize a broad panel of demographics and clinical COVID-19 and cancer characteristics. Results: As of April 15, 2021, a total of 1491 consecutive eligible patients from 18 countries were included in the analysis. With a mean observation period of 42 days, 361 events were reported with an all-cause case fatality rate of 24.2%. The clustering procedure screened 73 covariates in 13 clusters. A further multivariable logistic regression for the association between clusters and death was performed, resulting in five clusters significantly associated with the outcome. The fast-backward step-down selection procedure then identified the following seven major determinants of death: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group—performance status (ECOG-PS) (OR = 2.47, 1.87–3.26), neutrophil count (OR = 2.46, 1.76–3.44), serum procalcitonin (OR = 2.37, 1.64–3.43), development of pneumonia (OR = 1.95, 1.48–2.58), C-reactive protein (OR = 1.90, 1.43–2.51), tumor stage at COVID-19 diagnosis (OR = 1.97, 1.46–2.66), and age (OR = 1.71, 1.29–2.26). The receiver operating characteristic analysis for death of the selected model confirmed its diagnostic ability (area under the receiver operating curve = 0.78, 95% confidence interval: 0.75–0.81). The nomogram was able to classify the COVID-19 mortality in an interval ranging from 8% to 90%, and the tree-based model recognized ECOG-PS, neutrophil count, and c-reactive protein as the major determinants of prognosis. Conclusions: From 73 variables analyzed, seven major determinants of death have been identified. Poor ECOG-PS was found to have the strongest association with poor outcome from COVID-19. With our analysis, we provide clinicians with a definitive prognostication system to help determine the risk of mortality for patients with thoracic malignancies and COVID-19.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)661-674
Number of pages14
JournalJournal of Thoracic Oncology
Volume17
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - May 2022

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • Cancer
  • NSCLC
  • Registry
  • TERAVOLT
  • Thoracic

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oncology
  • Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine

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